[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 03 November 25 issued 2330 UT on 03 Nov 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Nov 4 10:30:50 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 NOVEMBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 NOVEMBER - 06 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Nov: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.6 0925UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M5.0 1011UT possible lower European
M2.9 1235UT possible lower European
M1.5 1708UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Nov: 133/87
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Nov 05 Nov 06 Nov
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 130/84 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 03-Nov was at the R2 level
due to an M5.0 flare at 03/1011UT produced by AR4274 (N24E70,
beta-gamma). Three flares at the R1 level were also observed,
all of which were produced by AR4274, which is likely the return
of previous flare active region AR4246. There are currently five
numbered sunspot region visible on the solar disk. AR4274 is
the largest and most magnetically complex region and appears
to be growing. AR4273 (S11E14, beta-gamma) has exhibited spot
development over the UT day. Newly numbered AR4275 (N08E75, beta)
recently rotated over the eastern limb and appears stable. All
other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be at R1-R2 levels over 04-06 Nov. S0 solar proton
conditions were observed on UT day 03-Nov. S0 solar proton conditions
are expected over 04-06 Nov. A broad northeast-directed CME was
observed, visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from 03/0948UT.
This CME is likely associated with an R1 level flare from AR4274
which peaked at 03/0925UT. Modelling indicates this CME is not
geoeffective. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been observed.
The solar wind speed on UT day 03-Nov was generally steady, ranging
from 415 to 480 km/s and is currently near 420 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was -8 to +6
nT. Several periods of sustained mild southward IMF conditions
were observed over the UT day. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain near background levels on 04-Nov, then may mildly increase
on 05-Nov due to a possible weak glancing CME arrival. The solar
wind speed is expected to increase on 06-Nov due to coronal hole
high speed wind stream effects from a northern hemisphere coronal
hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 03 Nov : A K
Australian Region 12 22333422
Cocos Island 7 21222322
Darwin 13 22323433
Townsville 16 22333532
Learmonth 16 22333523
Alice Springs 14 11333522
Gingin 14 22333433
Canberra 12 11333432
Kennaook Cape Grim 13 21343422
Hobart 14 22343422
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Nov :
Macquarie Island 35 23565542
Casey 15 43333323
Mawson 36 55454453
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 18 4433 3433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Nov 10 G0
05 Nov 12 G0
06 Nov 18 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 03-Nov, with isolated periods of G1 observed
at Learmonth, Alice Springs and Townsville. Mostly G1 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated
period of G2 observed at Macquarie Island. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 04-06 Nov, with a chance of G1 on 06-Nov due
to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects from a northern
hemisphere coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Nov Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 03-Nov were
mostly normal. Mostly normal conditions are expected over 04-05
Nov, tending to normal to fair on 06-Nov. Shortwave fadeouts
are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Nov 122
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 104
Nov 89
Dec 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Nov 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
05 Nov 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
06 Nov 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 100 was issued on
3 November and is current for 3-5 Nov. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 03-Nov were mostly near predicted monthly values
to 20% enhanced in the Australian region, however MUFs are 20%
depressed after local dawn in southern Australian regions. Spread
F was observed at Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 04-06
Nov. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:22%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Nov
Speed: 527 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 161000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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