[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 02 November 25 issued 2330 UT on 02 Nov 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Nov 3 10:30:49 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 NOVEMBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 NOVEMBER - 05 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Nov: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0026UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Nov: 123/76
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Nov 04 Nov 05 Nov
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 02-Nov was at the R1 level
due to an M1.0 flare at 02/0026UT. There are currently three
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered
region. Newly numbered region AR4273 (S11E26, beta) has recently
developed on the disk and is the most magnetically complex region
fully visible on the solar disk. The one M-class flare of the
day was produced by an active region over the eastern limb at
around N06. An unnumbered region has rotated onto the solar disk
behind AR4272 (N22E61, beta) at around N24 on the eastern limb
and appears to be significantly magnetically complex. All other
sunspot regions are stable. Solar activity is expected to be
at the R0 level over 03-05 Nov, with a chance of R1. Solar radiation
conditions were elevated but below the S1 level on UT day 02-Nov.
S0 solar proton conditions are expected over 03-05 Nov. No significantly
geoeffective CMEs were observed on 02-Nov. A northeast directed
CME is visible in SOHO and STEREO-A coronagraph imagery from
02/1212UT, associated with coronal movement visible in GOES SUVI
imagery over the eastern limb from 02/1145UT. Modelling suggests
this CME presents the chance of a faint glancing impact with
Earth on 05/2100UT. The solar wind speed was in decline over
02-Nov, mostly ranging between 625 to 440 km/s and is currently
near 480 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was -7 to +6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to decline
towards backgrounds levels and remain there over 03-04 Nov. An
increase in wind speed is possible from the second half of 05-Nov
due to anticipated high speed wind stream effects from an equatorial
coronal hole rotating towards a geoeffective position and a possible
faint glancing impact from a CME first observed on 02-Nov.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 02 Nov : A K
Australian Region 8 22132322
Cocos Island 7 22121331
Darwin 10 32131323
Townsville 11 32232332
Learmonth 9 32132322
Alice Springs 9 22232322
Gingin 13 32132433
Canberra 8 22132322
Kennaook Cape Grim 9 22232322
Hobart 10 23232322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Nov :
Macquarie Island 20 33354431
Casey 19 45332333
Mawson 42 45343656
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 14 3333 3331
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Nov 12 G0
04 Nov 10 G0
05 Nov 12 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 02-Nov. Mostly G1 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with G2 conditions observed
at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 03-05
Nov.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Nov Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 01-Nov were
mostly normal, with some degraded conditions observed at the
start of the day. Fair conditions were observed at high latitudes.
Mostly normal conditions are expected over 03-05 Nov.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Nov 120
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 104
Nov 89
Dec 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Nov 108 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
04 Nov 108 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
05 Nov 108 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 02-Nov were
near predicted monthly values in the southern Australian region,
with enhancements of up to 15% during local day hours. MUFs in
the northern Australian region were enhanced by up to 35% with
the strongest enhancements occurring during local night hours.
Spread F was observed at Hobart during local night hours. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
with stronger enhancements likely in the northern Australian
region over 03-05 Nov.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Nov
Speed: 529 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 179000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list