[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 20 November 25 issued 2330 UT on 20 Nov 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Nov 21 10:30:47 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 NOVEMBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 NOVEMBER - 23 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Nov: 121/73
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Nov 22 Nov 23 Nov
Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 120/72 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was at the R0 level for the UT day 20-Nov,
with no significant flare events observed in the last 24 hours.
There are currently five numbered Active Regions (AR) on the
visible solar surface, with AR4284 (S06W55, Beta) being the largest
and most magnetically complex. This region has shown decay over
the past 24 hours as it has rotated towards the western limb.
AR4288 (N18E82) has recently rotated over the eastern limb of
the solar disk, and appears stable with a beta magnetic classification.
However, this classification is currently influenced by limb
foreshortening. A new unnumbered region (S02E69) has also rotated
over the eastern limb. This region appears to exhibit alpha magnetic
classification, and has shown some mild growth over the past
24 hours. All other active regions on the solar surface appear
stable or in decay. Solar activity is forecast to remain at the
R0 level, with a chance of R1 over the period 21-23 Nov, due
to ongoing flare activity from AR4284 and AR4288. Solar radiation
storm conditions were at the S0 level during UT day 20-Nov. S0
conditions are forecast for the period 21-23 Nov. Three Coronal
Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed over the past UT day. All three
are considered non-geoeffective. However, further data is required
to fully confirm if the third CME, observed from 20/1523UT in
STEREO-A coronograph imagery, did indeed take place on the far
side of the Sun. The solar wind speed has increased over the
past 24 hours due to high speed wind stream effects from a small
northern coronal hole, ranging between 360-380 km/s early in
the UT day, and now ranging between 400-430 km/s over the last
six hours. The interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt)
peaked at 18 nT during 20-Nov, with the North-South component
(Bz) ranging between -10 and +15 nT. The IMF Bt is currently
at 14 nT, with some extended periods of negative Bz over the
past three hours. The solar wind speed will likely remain at
this level over the 21-22 Nov due to high speed coronal hole
wind stream effects, declining on 23-Nov as this rotates further
across the disk.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 20 Nov : A K
Australian Region 6 12111223
Cocos Island 4 11111212
Darwin 4 12111212
Townsville 7 22122223
Learmonth 7 22122223
Alice Springs 6 12111223
Gingin 8 22121323
Canberra 6 12111223
Kennaook Cape Grim 7 13211213
Hobart 7 13211213
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Nov :
Macquarie Island 3 12100112
Casey 30 45643234
Mawson 17 33321254
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Nov :
Darwin 9 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1011 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Nov 7 G0
22 Nov 6 G0
23 Nov 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed across the Australian
region throughout UT day 20-Nov. Periods of G1-G2 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic regions. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 21-23 Nov, with only mild coronal
hole high speed wind stream effects, and no coronal mass ejection
events forecast over this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 20-Nov were
mostly normal, with fair conditions observed at low latitudes
in the America and Atlantic regions. Scintillation events were
observed in the South American region early in the UT day, and
were also observed across high latitude regions between 20/1830-2210UT.
Mostly normal conditions are expected over 21-23 Nov, with further
scintillation events possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Nov 125
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 104
Nov 89
Dec 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Nov 105 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
22 Nov 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
23 Nov 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were largely near
predicted monthly values in the Australian region, with some
enhancements seen at seen across the southern and northern regions
during UT day 20-Nov. Sporadic-E was observed in both Hobart
and Canberra during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be
near predicted monthly values to enhanced by 15% over the period
21-23 Nov.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Nov
Speed: 384 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 25300 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list