[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 13 May 25 issued 2330 UT on 13 May 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed May 14 09:30:43 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 MAY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 14 MAY - 16 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 May: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X1.2 1538UT probable all South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 May: 117/69
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 May 15 May 16 May
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 116/68 116/68 116/68
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 13-May was at the R3 level
due to an X1.2 flare at 13/1538UT. There were no other notable
flares in the UT day. There are currently five numbered sunspot
regions visible on the solar disk and two unnumbered regions.
AR4086 (N07W81, beta) was responsible for the X1.2 flare of the
day and showed spot development. This region, however, will rotate
off the solar disk on 15-May. AR4085 (N02W13, beta) also showed
spot development over the UT day. Two unnumbered regions are
present on the disk at N05W25 and S04E43 with beta and alpha
magnetic complexity respectively. All other sunspot regions are
either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at
R0-R1 levels, with a chance of R2 on 13-May. Solar activity is
expected to be at the R0 level, with a chance of R1 on 15-16
May. The > 10MeV proton flux as measured at GOES was elevated
at the end of 13-May, but below the S1 threshold. S0 solar radiation
conditions, with a chance of S1 are expected on 14-May. S0 conditions
are expected on 15-16 May. Multiple CMEs were observed over the
UT day, however none have significant Earth directed components.
A north directed CME is visible from 13/0012UT in SOHO and STEREO-A
imagery. This CME is associated with a large filament eruption
at around N28W05 visible from 12/1840UT in SDO, GOES SUVI and
H-Alpha imagery. Modelling suggests this CME presents the chance
of a glancing impact on 17-May at 0800UT +/- 12 hours. A northeast
directed CME is visible from 13/1500UT in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery.
Coronal movement behind the visible disk is present in GOES SUVI
imagery from 13/1440UT. This CME is considered a far side event
and not geoeffective. A fast, west directed CME is visible from
13/1600UT in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery. This CME is associated
with an eruption concurrent with the X1.2 flare at 13/1538UT.
Modelling suggests this CME will pass ahead of the Earth. The
solar wind speed on UT day 13-May was mostly steady and ranged
between 360 to 430 km/s and is currently near 380 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 13
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was -10 to +12
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain near current levels
over 14-16 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 May: G0
Estimated Indices 13 May : A K
Australian Region 5 11111232
Cocos Island 3 11110121
Darwin 6 12111232
Townsville 6 12111232
Learmonth 5 21110231
Alice Springs 5 11111232
Gingin 6 21110331
Canberra 5 01111232
Kennaook Cape Grim 5 01112232
Hobart 5 01112232
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 May :
Macquarie Island 3 00022122
Casey 13 34322233
Mawson 18 33211263
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 May : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 May : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 2222 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 May 10 G0, chance of G1
15 May 8 G0
16 May 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 13-May. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region, with G2 conditions observed at Mawson.
G0 geomagnetic conditions, with a chance of G1 are expected on
14-May with a chance of G1 due to ongoing coronal hole solar
wind streams. G0 conditions are expected over 15-16 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 May Fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 13-May were
mostly normal at low latitudes, and fair to poor at at middle
and high latitudes with worse conditions observed in the Northern
hemisphere. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be
mostly normal over 14-16 May with mild degradations possible
at high latitudes on 14-May. Mild shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 May 82
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 123
May 113
Jun 111
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 May 85 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
15 May 100 Near predicted monthly values
16 May 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 13-May were depressed by 15-20% during local
night and were near predicted monthly values during local day.
Spread F was observed at Hobart. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values to 15% depressed on 14-May. MUFs are
expected to recover to near monthly predicted values over 15-16
May. Mild shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 May
Speed: 395 km/sec Density: 6.8 p/cc Temp: 40400 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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