[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 12 May 25 issued 2331 UT on 12 May 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Tue May 13 09:31:17 AEST 2025

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 MAY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 13 MAY - 15 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 May:  R0

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.9    0001UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 May: 116/68

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 May             14 May             15 May
Activity     R0                 R0                 R0 
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   116/68             114/65             116/68

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 12-May was at the R0 level. 
There are currently four numbered sunspot regions visible on 
the solar disk and two unnumbered regions. There are no large 
and complex active regions currently visible on the solar disk. 
AR4086 (N07W64, beta) showed spot development over the UT day. 
An unnumbered region has developed at around N05W12 with beta 
magnetic characteristics, a further unnumbered region has rotated 
on at around N13E76 with alpha magnetic characteristics. All 
other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity 
is expected to be at the R0 level over 13-15 May. S0 solar radiation 
conditions were observed on 12-May. S0 conditions are expected 
over 13-15 May. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The 
solar wind speed on UT day 12-May was in decline ranging from 
360 to 470 km/s and is currently near 380 km/s. The peak total 
interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 12 nT and 
the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was -5 to +10 nT. The 
solar wind speed is expected to remain near background levels 
over 13-15 May, with a chance of mild increases due to several 
small coronal holes approaching a geoeffective position.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 May: G0

Estimated Indices 12 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22212001
      Cocos Island         3   22111010
      Darwin               5   22212012
      Townsville           6   23212012
      Learmonth            4   22212011
      Alice Springs        3   12212001
      Gingin               4   22213000
      Canberra             3   12212001
      Kennaook Cape Grim   3   12212001
      Hobart               3   12212001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 May :
      Macquarie Island     3   11123000
      Casey                8   24322011
      Mawson               7   24222101

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               5   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary              0   2332 3154     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 May     5    G0
14 May     8    G0
15 May     8    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
and Antarctic regions on UT day 12-May. G0 geomagnetic conditions 
are expected over 13-15 May.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 12-May were 
normal at low latitudes, and fair at at middle and high latitudes 
with worse conditions observed in the Northern hemisphere. HF 
radio propagation conditions are expected to be mostly normal 
over 13-15 May with mild degradations possible at high latitudes.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
12 May    87

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      123
May      113
Jun      111

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 May    95    Near predicted monthly values
14 May   105    Near predicted monthly values
15 May   105    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian 
region on UT day 11-May were depressed by 15-25% in the southern 
Australian region. MUFs were near predicted monthly values in 
the northern Australian region. Spread F was observed at Hobart, 
Canberra and Perth during local night hours. Sporadic E was observed 
at Brisbane during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be 
near predicted monthly values over 13-15 May.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.5

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 May
Speed: 421 km/sec  Density:    3.5 p/cc  Temp:    97500 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au