[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 11 May 25 issued 2330 UT on 11 May 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon May 12 09:30:58 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 MAY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 12 MAY - 14 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 May: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 May: 126/79
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 May 13 May 14 May
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 11-May was at the R0 level,
with several low level C-class flares observed, most of which
were produced by AR4079 (N08W93, beta) which has now rotated
over the western limb. There are currently four numbered sunspot
regions visible on the solar disk. AR4085 (N02E15, gamma) is
the most magnetically complex region on the disk and has shown
mild growth in its intermediate spot. Newly numbered AR4086 (N07W52,
beta) recently appeared on the solar disk and has exhibited mild
spot growth. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in
decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level over
12-14 May. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The solar
wind speed on UT day 11-May was mostly stable, ranging from 390
to 460 km/s and is currently near 455 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was -8 to +9 nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to remain elevated over 12-14 May due to ongoing
coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 May: G0
Estimated Indices 11 May : A K
Australian Region 11 22223143
Cocos Island 8 22122133
Darwin 12 22223144
Townsville 12 23223143
Learmonth 15 22223254
Alice Springs 10 12223143
Gingin 14 22222254
Canberra 9 12222043
Kennaook Cape Grim 12 12223144
Hobart 9 12222143
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 May :
Macquarie Island 10 12333232
Casey 13 32233243
Mawson 51 65343176
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 May : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 May : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 14 4422 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 May 12 G0, chance of G1
13 May 8 G0
14 May 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 11-May, with isolated periods of G1 observed
at Learmonth and Gingin. Mostly G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region, with isolated periods
of G2 and G3 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are
expected over 12-14 May, with a chance of G1 on 12-May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 May Normal Fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 11-May were
normal at low latitudes, and fair at at middle and high latitudes.
HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be mostly normal
over 12-14 May, with degradations possible at middle to high
latitudes on 12-May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 May 89
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 123
May 113
Jun 111
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 May 95 Near predicted monthly values
13 May 95 Near predicted monthly values
14 May 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 11-May were depressed by 15-20% in southern
Australian regions. MUFs were near predicted monthly values in
northern Australia. Spread F was observed at several Australian
sites during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values over 12-14 May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 May
Speed: 472 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 139000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list