[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 10 May 25 issued 2330 UT on 10 May 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun May 11 09:30:56 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 MAY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 11 MAY - 13 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 May: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 May: 134/88
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 May 12 May 13 May
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 125/78 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 10-May was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares observed, the largest of which was
a C5.5 flare at 10/1621UT produced by AR4079 (N08W77, beta).
There are currently five numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk. AR4081 (N07W47, beta-gamma) is the most magnetically
complex region on the disk and has shown recent trailer spot
development. AR4079 will soon rotate over the western limb. Newly
numbered region AR4085 (N02E28, beta) recently appeared on the
disk and has shown spot development. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to
be at R0-R1 levels over 11-13 May. No Earth-directed CMEs have
been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 10-May increased
in the first half of the UT day and decreased in the second half,
ranging from 410 to 550 km/s and is currently near 430 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 9 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was -7
to +6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to decline over 11-13
May due to waning coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 May: G0
Estimated Indices 10 May : A K
Australian Region 5 32112111
Cocos Island 3 22111110
Darwin 7 33212112
Townsville 6 33112102
Learmonth 7 33112112
Alice Springs 5 32112101
Gingin 8 33113122
Canberra 6 32113101
Kennaook Cape Grim 5 22113101
Hobart 6 32113111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 May :
Macquarie Island 10 32125110
Casey 10 43222221
Mawson 38 56333156
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 54 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 May : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 May : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 11 3222 2344
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 May 12 G0, chance of G1
12 May 8 G0
13 May 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 10-May. Mostly G1 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G2 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 11-13 May, with a chance of G1 on 11-May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 May Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 10-May were
normal to fair at low latitudes, and fair to poor at middle and
high latitudes. HF radio propagation conditions are expected
to be mostly normal over 11-13 May, with degradations possible
at middle to high latitudes on 11-May. Minor shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 May 95
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during after local dawn and during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 123
May 113
Jun 111
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 May 90 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
12 May 95 Near predicted monthly values
13 May 95 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 10-May were depressed by 20-25% in southern
Australian regions. MUFs were near predicted monthly values to
20% depressed during local night in northern Australia. Spread
F was observed at Hobart and Canberra during local night hours.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15%
depressed on 11-May, improving to near predicted monthly values
over 12-13 May. Minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 May
Speed: 438 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 71100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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