[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 14 May 25 issued 2331 UT on 14 May 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu May 15 09:31:07 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 MAY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 15 MAY - 17 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 May: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M5.3 0325UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.2 0745UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
X2.7 0825UT probable all Mid East/Indian
M7.7 1119UT probable lower European
M4.7 1811UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 May: 122/75
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 May 16 May 17 May
Activity R2, chance R3 R2, chance R3 R2, chance R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 116/68 116/68 118/70
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 14-May was at the R3 level
due to an X2.7 flare at 14/0825UT produced by AR4087 (N15E50,
beta-gamma). This region also produced two flares at the R2 level,
with an M5.3 at 14/0325UT and an M7.7 at 14/1119UT. There are
currently three numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar
disk. AR4087 is the largest region on the disk and has shown
decay in its trailer spots and some mild development in its leader
spots. Newly numbered AR4088 (N08W37, beta) recently appeared
on the solar disk and has shown mild growth. AR4082 (S12W66,
alpha) is stable. Solar activity is expected to be at the R2
level over 15-17 May, with a chance of R3. Several CMEs were
observed, but none are considered geoeffective. A northeast-directed
CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from
14/0848UT. This CME is likely associated with the aforementioned
X2.7 flare from AR4087. Modelling indicates this CME does not
contain an Earth-directed component. A second northeast-directed
CME was observed, visible in coronagraph imagery from 14/1136UT.
This CME is considered to be associated with the M7.7 flare.
Modelling indicates this CME is also not Earth-directed. A northwest-directed
CME visible at 14/0624UT is considered to be a farside event
and is not geoeffective. The solar wind speed on UT day 14-May
increased, ranging from 355 to 435 km/s and is currently near
425 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 12 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was -10 to +7 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to decline
over 15-17 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 May: G0
Estimated Indices 14 May : A K
Australian Region 12 32223341
Cocos Island 9 32222330
Darwin 13 3333323-
Townsville 13 2322334-
Learmonth 14 3232334-
Alice Springs 11 22223341
Gingin 19 42214452
Canberra 11 22124332
Kennaook Cape Grim 15 2212444-
Hobart 13 2212434-
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 May :
Macquarie Island 18 21345342
Casey 17 44323341
Mawson 34 64423364
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 May :
Darwin 61 (Active)
Townsville 44 (Unsettled)
Learmonth 56 (Unsettled)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 89 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 May : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 May : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 0 2222 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 May 8 G0
16 May 5 G0
17 May 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 14-May, with an isolated period of G1 observed
at Gingin. G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the
Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over
15-17 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 May Fair-poor Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 May Normal Normal Normal
17 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 14-May were
mostly normal at high latitudes, and fair to poor at at middle
and low latitudes. HF radio propagation conditions are expected
to be mostly normal over 15-17 May. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 May 89
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 123
May 113
Jun 111
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 May 80 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
16 May 100 Near predicted monthly values
17 May 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 47 was issued on
14 May and is current for 14-16 May. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 14-May were depressed
by 15-45% during local night and were near predicted monthly
values during local day. Spread F was observed at Hobart during
local night hours. MUFs are expected to be 15-20% depressed on
15-May, improving to near predicted monthly values over 16-17
May. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 8.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 May
Speed: 388 km/sec Density: 6.6 p/cc Temp: 68300 K Bz: 5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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