[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 07 May 25 issued 2331 UT on 07 May 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu May 8 09:31:23 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 MAY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 08 MAY - 10 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 May: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 May: 154/109
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 May 09 May 10 May
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 160/114 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 07-May was at the R0 level.
There are currently three numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk and one unnumbered region. AR4079 (N08W36, beta-delta)
is the largest and most magnetically complex region on the disk,
yet has not produced any significant flares. All three visible
regions showed movement of their trailer spots, but no significant
growth or decay. An unnumbered region has rotated on to the solar
disk at around S21E76 with beta magnetic characteristics. Solar
activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 08-10 May. S0
solar proton conditions were observed on UT day 07-May although
the > 10 MeV electron flux has been slightly elevated at times
over the last three days. S0 solar proton conditions are expected
over 08-10 May. No Earth directed CMEs were observed on 07-May.
A northeast directed CME was observed in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery
from 07/1200UT associated with a filament eruption visible from
07/1136UT at around N30E60 in SDO, GOES SUVI and H-Alpha imagery.
Modelling indicates this CME is directed well above Earth. The
solar wind speed on UT day 07-May decreased, ranging from 660
to 450 km/s and is currently near 430 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 5 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was -4 to +3 nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to remain near current levels over 08-May. An increase
is expected over 09-May due to a combination of high speed wind
stream effects from two coronal holes which are currently approaching
a geoeffective location, and a possible glancing impact from
a CME first observed on 06-May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 May: G0
Estimated Indices 07 May : A K
Australian Region 5 22230111
Cocos Island 3 22120010
Darwin 6 22230112
Townsville 6 22231111
Learmonth 6 22231111
Alice Springs 4 12130111
Gingin 5 22121121
Canberra 5 12230111
Kennaook Cape Grim 5 12230111
Hobart 7 12241111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 May :
Macquarie Island 10 22343111
Casey 10 33332212
Mawson 27 45432226
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 20 (Quiet)
Hobart 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 May : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 May : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 15 4233 2334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 May 8 G0
09 May 20 G1
10 May 12 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 36 was issued on 5 May and
is current for 7-9 May. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 07-May. Mostly G0 conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region, with G2 conditions observed
at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 08-May.
G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 09-May due to the combined
effects of coronal hole high speed wind streams and a possible
glancing blow from a CME first observed on 06-May. G0 conditions,
with a chance of G1 are expected on 10-May due to ongoing effects
from 09-May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 May Normal Fair-normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
10 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 07-May were
mostly normal at low latitudes, fair to normal at mid latitudes
and fair to poor at high latitudes. With worse conditions observed
in the northern hemisphere. HF radio propagation conditions are
expected to be mostly normal over 08-10 May, with mild degradations
possible at middle to high latitudes over the period. Minor shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 May 96
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 123
May 113
Jun 111
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 May 92 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
09 May 92 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
10 May 92 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 45 was issued on 7 May
and is current for 8-10 May. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
in the Australian region on UT day 07-May were near predicted
monthly values to 25-30% depressed during local night. Spread
F was observed at Hobart during local night hours. Sporadic E
was observed at Perth and Learmonth for significant periods of
07-May. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
values over 08-10 May, with a chance of depressions of up to
15% due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Minor shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 May
Speed: 617 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 209000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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