[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 08 May 25 issued 2330 UT on 08 May 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri May 9 09:30:57 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 MAY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 09 MAY - 11 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 May: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 May: 149/104
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 May 10 May 11 May
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 08-May was at the R0 level.
There are currently four numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk. AR4079 (N08W51, beta-delta) is still the largest
and most magnetically complex region on the disk and developed
slightly over the UT day, yet has not produced any significant
flares. All other numbered regions were either stable or in decay.
Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 09-11 May.
S0 solar proton conditions were observed on UT day 08-May although
the > 10 MeV electron flux has been slightly elevated at times
over the last several days. S0 solar proton conditions are expected
over 09-11 May. No Earth directed CMEs were observed on 08-May.
The solar wind speed on UT day 08-May was steady, ranging from
410 to 510 km/s and is currently near 460 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and
the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was -7 to +5 nT. The
solar wind speed is expected to increase on 09-May due to a combination
of high speed wind stream effects from a coronal hole in the
southern hemisphere, and a possible glancing impact from a CME
first observed on 06-May. Elevated solar wind speeds are expected
over 10-11 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 May: G0
Estimated Indices 08 May : A K
Australian Region 8 12312204
Cocos Island 5 12211103
Darwin 9 23322213
Townsville 8 12322213
Learmonth 9 22312204
Alice Springs 9 12322204
Gingin 9 12212314
Canberra 8 12312204
Kennaook Cape Grim 9 12312304
Hobart 8 12312204
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 May :
Macquarie Island 11 12314412
Casey 13 24332214
Mawson 43 55533417
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 May : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 May : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 2333 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 May 20 G0-G1
10 May 12 G0, chance of G1
11 May 12 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 36 was issued on 5 May and
is current for 7-9 May. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 08-May. Mostly G0 conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region, with G3 conditions observed
at Mawson. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 09-May
due to the combined effects of a coronal hole high speed wind
stream and a possible glancing blow from a CME first observed
on 06-May. G0 conditions, with a chance of G1 are expected on
10-11 May due to ongoing effects from 09-May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
10 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 08-May were
mostly normal at low latitudes, fair to normal at mid latitudes
and fair at high latitudes. With worse conditions observed in
the northern hemisphere. HF radio propagation conditions are
expected to be mostly normal over 09-11 May, with degradations
possible at middle to high latitudes over the period. Minor shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 May 89
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 123
May 113
Jun 111
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 May 85 Depressed 20%/near predicted monthly values
10 May 90 Depressed 20%/near predicted monthly values
11 May 95 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 45 was issued on 7 May
and is current for 8-10 May. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
in the Australian region on UT day 08-May were near predicted
monthly values to 25-30% depressed during local night. Spread
F was observed at Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected
to be mostly near predicted monthly values to depressed by 20%
over 09-10 May, conditions are expected to improve towards predicted
monthly values on 11-May. Minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 May
Speed: 521 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 132000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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