[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 06 May 25 issued 2330 UT on 06 May 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed May 7 09:30:58 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 MAY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 07 MAY - 09 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 May: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 May: 156/110
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 May 08 May 09 May
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 160/114 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 06-May was at the R0 level,
with several low level C-class flares observed, the largest of
which was a C4.5 flare observed at 06/1707UT produced by AR4079
(N08W22, beta-gamma-delta). There are currently three numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR4079 is the largest
and most magnetically complex region on the disk and has shown
some mild decay in its trailer spots. AR4081 (N07E05, beta) has
exhibited spot growth over the UT day. AR4082 (S12E39, beta)
has shown mild decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1
levels over 07-09 May. S0 solar proton conditions were observed
on UT day 06-May, though the proton flux has been mildly elevated
since 06/1600UT. S0 solar proton conditions are expected over
07-09 May. Two filament eruptions were observed on UT day 06-May.
The first occurred at 06/1610UT, visible in H-alpha imagery,
from a filament centred near S22E07. A subsequent faint, narrow
CME was observed in coronagraph imagery from 06/1712UT. Modelling
indicates most material from this CME will miss the Earth, however
a glancing arrival is possible on 09-May. Further modelling will
be completed once additional coronagraph imagery becomes available.
A second filament eruption was observed, visible in GOES SUVI
imagery at 06/1724UT centred near N39W10. An associated CME was
observed in coronagraph imagery from 06/1900UT. Modelling indicates
this low velocity CME does not contain a geoeffective component.
No other Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The solar wind
speed on UT day 06-May decreased, ranging from 575 to 730 km/s
and is currently near 595 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was -6 to +4 nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to remain elevated over 07-09 May due to the combined
effects of a coronal hole high speed wind stream and a possible
glancing CME arrival on 09-May. A southern hemisphere coronal
hole currently crossing the central meridian may influence the
solar wind speed starting late on UT day 07-May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 May: G0
Estimated Indices 06 May : A K
Australian Region 10 32232232
Cocos Island 7 22212232
Darwin 10 32222233
Townsville 9 3--22223
Learmonth 11 32322233
Alice Springs 9 2-222233
Gingin 11 22232342
Canberra 7 22231222
Kennaook Cape Grim 12 32242332
Hobart 12 32242332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 May :
Macquarie Island 31 33663333
Casey 23 43332633
Mawson 45 44533376
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 May :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 68 (Active)
Learmonth 19 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 11 (Quiet)
Gingin 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 65 (Active)
Hobart 101 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 May : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 May : A K
Fredericksburg 23
Planetary 29 3544 4544
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 May 12 G0, slight chance of G1
08 May 18 G0-G1
09 May 20 G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 36 was issued on 5 May and
is current for 7-9 May. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 06-May. Mostly G2 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated
period of G3 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are
expected on 07-May, with a slight chance of G1 due to coronal
hole effects. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 08-May.
G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 09-May due to the combined
effects of a coronal hole high speed wind stream and a possible
glancing blow from a CME first observed on 06-May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 06-May were
normal to fair at middle and low latitudes. HF radio propagation
conditions are expected to be mostly normal over 07-09 May, with
mild degradations possible at middle to high latitudes. Minor
shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 May 104
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 123
May 113
Jun 111
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 May 105 Near predicted monthly values
08 May 105 Near predicted monthly values
09 May 105 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 44 was issued on
5 May and is current for 5-7 May. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 06-May were near predicted
monthly values to 15-25% depressed during local night. Spread
F was observed at Hobart and Canberra during local night hours.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 07-09
May. There is a chance of mild depressions in the southern Australian
region over the forecast period due to expected geomagnetic activity.
Minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:22%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 May
Speed: 737 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 331000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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