[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 05 May 25 issued 2331 UT on 05 May 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue May 6 09:31:01 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 MAY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 06 MAY - 08 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 May: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 May: 159/113
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 May 07 May 08 May
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 160/114 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 05-May was at the R0 level,
with several low level C-class flares observed. There are currently
four numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR4079
(N08W08, beta) is the largest region on the disk and has shown
some development in its northern trailer spots. AR4081 (N07E20,
beta) has shown spot growth. AR4082 (S12E54, beta) has exhibited
spot development over the UT day. All other sunspot regions are
stable. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over
06-08 May. S0 solar proton conditions were observed on UT day
05-May, though the proton flux has been mildly elevated since
05/1530UT. S0 solar proton conditions are expected over 06-08
May. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. A small filament
eruption was observed, visible in H-alpha imagery from 05/0758UT
centred near S31E22. No CME was observed in association with
this event. The solar wind speed on UT day 05-May increased,
ranging from 655 to 800 km/s and is currently near 710 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 9 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was -8
to +6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated
over 06-08 May due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
A southern hemisphere coronal hole currently crossing the central
meridian may influence the solar wind speed from 07-May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 May: G0
Estimated Indices 05 May : A K
Australian Region 15 33334323
Cocos Island 12 23333322
Darwin 18 34333433
Townsville 16 34334322
Learmonth 19 34334433
Alice Springs 14 33333422
Gingin 18 33334433
Canberra 17 34344322
Kennaook Cape Grim 18 33344333
Hobart 17 33344323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 May :
Macquarie Island 54 34667534
Casey 50 44435823
Mawson 53 65554565
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 80 (Active)
Canberra 82 (Minor storm)
Hobart 118 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 May : A
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 30
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 May : A K
Fredericksburg 29
Planetary 0 4352 4444
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 May 18 G0-G1
07 May 15 G0-G1
08 May 15 G0-G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 36 was issued on 5 May and
is current for 6-9 May. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 05-May. Mostly G2 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated
period of G3 observed at Macquarie Island and an isolated period
of G4 observed at Casey. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 06-08 May due to ongoing coronal hole high speed wind stream
effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
07 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 05-May were
normal to fair at middle to high latitudes. HF radio propagation
conditions are expected to be mostly normal over 06-08 May, with
mild degradations possible at middle to high latitudes. Minor
shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 May 108
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 123
May 113
Jun 111
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 May 95 Near predicted monthly values
07 May 95 Near predicted monthly values
08 May 95 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 44 was issued on
5 May and is current for 5-7 May. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 05-May were mostly
near predicted monthly values, with depressions of 20% observed
in southern Australia during local night. Spread F was observed
at Hobart and Canberra during local night hours. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values over 06-08 May. There is
a chance of mild depressions in the southern Australian region
over the forecast period due to expected geomagnetic activity.
Minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 May
Speed: 614 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 234000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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