[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 02 May 25 issued 2330 UT on 02 May 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat May 3 09:30:55 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 MAY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 03 MAY - 05 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 May: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 May: 152/107
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 May 04 May 05 May
Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 155/109 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 02-May was at the R0 level.
There are currently three numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk. AR4079 (N08E31, beta-gamma-delta) is by far the
largest and most magnetically complex region on the disk. This
region displayed spot development over the UT day, as did AR4072
(S17W50, alpha). The other sunspot region was stable. Solar activity
is expected to be at the R1 level over 03-05 May, with a chance
of R2. S0 solar radiation conditions were observed on 02-May.
S0 solar radiation conditions are expected on 03-05 May. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed on 02-May. The solar wind speed on UT day
02-May increased, mostly ranging between 440 to 655 km/s and
is currently near 630 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 15 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was -11 to +11 nT. Periods of significant -Bz (at
or lower than -5 nT) were observed throughout the UT day. The
solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated over 03-05 May
due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects from two narrow
coronal holes now in the western solar hemisphere. There is a
chance of decline on 05-May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 May: G1
Estimated Indices 02 May : A K
Australian Region 22 33354433
Cocos Island 14 33243233
Darwin 22 33354433
Townsville 20 33354333
Learmonth 22 33354343
Alice Springs 19 33353333
Gingin 25 33263443
Canberra 22 33353434
Kennaook Cape Grim 29 33364444
Hobart 31 33364544
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 May :
Macquarie Island 55 44476653
Casey 21 44344333
Mawson 46 54544447
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 May : A
Fredericksburg 27
Planetary 34
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 May : A K
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 21 3444 4355
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 May 18 G1
04 May 15 G0-G1
05 May 12 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 34 was issued on 2 May and
is current for 2-3 May. G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region, with periods of G2 observed at Gingin,
Kennaook Cape Grim and Hobart. G1-G3 conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected
to continue into 03-May due to ongoing coronal hole high speed
wind stream effects. G0-G1 conditions are expected on 04-May
and G0 conditions are expected on 05-May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 May Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
04 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 02-May were
mostly normal at low to mid latitudes with fair to poor conditions
observed at high latitudes. HF radio propagation conditions are
expected to be mostly normal over 03-05 May, with mild degradations
possible at high latitudes over 03-04 May. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 May 120
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 123
May 113
Jun 111
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 May 115 Near predicted monthly values
04 May 115 Near predicted monthly values
05 May 125 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 43 was issued on
1 May and is current for 2-4 May. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 02-May were near predicted
monthly values. Spread F was observed at Hobart during local
night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
over 03-05 May. Further spread F is expected at Hobart. There
is a chance of mild depressions in the southern Australian region
on 03-04 May. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 May
Speed: 445 km/sec Density: 14.1 p/cc Temp: 143000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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