[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 03 May 25 issued 2331 UT on 03 May 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun May 4 09:31:05 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 MAY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 04 MAY - 06 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 May: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 May: 152/107
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 May 05 May 06 May
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 155/109 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 03-May was at the R0 level.
There are currently four numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk. AR4079 (N08E17, beta-gamma-delta) is by far the
largest and most magnetically complex region on the disk and
appeared stable on 03-May. Newly numbered region AR4081 (N07E45,
beta) showed development over the UT day. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to
be at R0-R1 levels over 04-06 May. S0 solar radiation conditions
were observed on 03-May. S0 solar radiation conditions are expected
on 04-06 May. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed on 03-May.
The solar wind speed on UT day 03-May increased, mostly ranging
between 570 and 875 km/s and is currently near 710 km/s. The
peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was
11 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was -9 to
+7 nT. A period of sustained -Bz was observed from 03/0730 to
03/0950UT. The solar wind is expected to remain enhanced over
04-06 May due to high speed wind stream effects from a pair of
narrow coronal holes in the western hemisphere. There is a chance
of a decline on 05-06 May, however an additional coronal hole
in the southern hemisphere is expected to enter a geoeffective
position on 06-May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 May: G1
Estimated Indices 03 May : A K
Australian Region 15 33352321
Cocos Island 11 32342311
Darwin 17 33352323
Townsville 17 33452322
Learmonth 21 43453421
Alice Springs 16 33352322
Gingin 17 33352421
Canberra 15 33352311
Kennaook Cape Grim 17 33452321
Hobart 17 33452321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 May :
Macquarie Island 39 44574432
Casey 23 44543333
Mawson 50 75554354
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 May :
Darwin 7 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 57 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 May : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 24
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 May : A K
Fredericksburg 24
Planetary 24 5544 5545
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 May 15 G0, chance of G1
05 May 12 G0
06 May 18 G0-G1
COMMENT: G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 03-May. Mostly G3 conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions, with a chance
of G1 are expected on 04-May due to ongoing coronal hole high
speed wind stream effects, G0 conditions are expected on 05-May.
G0-G1 conditions are again expected on 06-May due to high speed
wind stream effects from a coronal hole in the southern hemisphere
rotating towards a geoeffective position.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 May Poor-fair Fair-normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 03-May were
mostly poor at high and low latitudes, particularly in the northern
hemisphere for the first half of the UT day. Conditions recovered
towards fair to normal in the second half of the day. HF radio
propagation conditions are expected to be mostly normal over
04-06 May, with mild degradations possible at high latitudes
on 04-May. Minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 May 118
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 123
May 113
Jun 111
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 May 115 Near predicted monthly values
05 May 125 Near predicted monthly values
06 May 125 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 43 was issued on
1 May and is current for 2-4 May. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 03-May were near predicted
monthly values. Significant spread F was observed at Hobart during
local night hours. Sporadic E was observed in the Cocos Island
region over 03-May. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values over 04-06 May. Further spread F is expected at Hobart.
There is a chance of mild depressions in the southern Australian
region on 04-May. Minor shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 May
Speed: 553 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 257000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list