[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 01 May 25 issued 2330 UT on 01 May 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Fri May 2 09:30:49 AEST 2025

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 MAY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 02 MAY - 04 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 May:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 May: 152/107

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 May             03 May             04 May
Activity     R1, chance R2      R1, chance R2      R1, chance R2
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            145/99             145/99

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 01-May was at the R0 level, 
with several low level C-class flares observed. There are currently 
three numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR4079 
(N08E44, beta-delta) is the largest and most magnetically complex 
region on the disk. This region has shown overall spot growth 
over the UT day. All other sunspot regions are either stable 
or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R1 level 
over 02-04 May, with a chance of R2. No Earth-directed CMEs have 
been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 01-May was mostly 
stable, ranging from 410 to 485 km/s and is currently near 460 
km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, 
Bt) was 13 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was 
-10 to +10 nT. Several short periods of southward IMF conditions 
were observed over the UT day. The solar wind speed is expected 
to remain elevated over 02-04 May due to coronal hole high speed 
wind stream effects from two narrow coronal holes now in the 
western solar hemisphere.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 May: G0

Estimated Indices 01 May : A   K           
   Australian Region      18   23343344
      Cocos Island        12   23323233
      Darwin              16   33333343
      Townsville          17   23343343
      Learmonth           21   33344344
      Alice Springs       16   22343343
      Gingin              22   32344354
      Canberra            18   23343344
      Kennaook Cape Grim  21   23353344
      Hobart              21   23353344    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 May :
      Macquarie Island    32   13465453
      Casey               23   33333264
      Mawson              41   26433466

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              12   (Quiet)
      Canberra            22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              37   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             26                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary              0   4333 2123     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 May    18    G0-G1
03 May    15    G0, chance of G1
04 May    12    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 01-May, with isolated periods of G1 observed 
at Hobart, Gingin and Kennaook Cape Grim. G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions 
were observed in the Antarctic region. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions 
are expected on 02-May due to ongoing coronal hole effects. G0 
geomagnetic conditions are expected over 03-04 May, with a chance 
of G1 on 03-May as coronal hole effects wane.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
03 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
04 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 01-May were 
mostly normal. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to 
be mostly normal over 02-04 May, with fair conditions at middle 
to high latitudes on 02-May due to increased geomagnetic activity. 
Shortwave fadeouts are possible.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
01 May   116

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      123
May      113
Jun      111

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 May   110    Near predicted monthly values
03 May   110    Near predicted monthly values
04 May   110    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 43 was issued on 
1 May and is current for 2-4 May. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 01-May were near predicted 
monthly values. Spread F was observed at Hobart during local 
night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values 
over 02-04 May. Southern Australian region HF conditions may 
become mildly degraded during local night hours over the forecast 
period. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.6

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Apr
Speed: 434 km/sec  Density:   11.2 p/cc  Temp:    95800 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au