[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 30 April 25 issued 2330 UT on 30 Apr 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu May 1 09:30:53 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 APRIL 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 01 MAY - 03 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Apr: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.0 0751UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Apr: 148/102
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 May 02 May 03 May
Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 30-Apr was at the R1 level
due to an M2.0 flare at 30/0751UT produced by AR4079 (N05E50,
beta-gamma-delta). There are currently five numbered sunspot
regions visible on the solar disk. AR4079 is the largest and
most magnetically complex region on the disk. This region has
exhibited spot development over the UT day, particularly south
of its main double umbra leader spot. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to
be at the R1 level over 01-03 May, with a chance of R2. No Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 30-Apr
was variable, ranging from 405 to 460 km/s and is currently near
455 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 11 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was -7 to +10 nT. The solar wind speed may mildly increase over
01-02 May due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects
from a small northern hemisphere coronal hole. Two additional
small coronal holes will cross the central meridian today, and
may influence the solar wind speed on 03-May.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 30 Apr : A K
Australian Region 5 22221112
Cocos Island 5 22221112
Darwin 6 22221222
Townsville 8 22231223
Learmonth 8 32322122
Alice Springs 7 32231112
Gingin 6 31221122
Canberra 5 21221112
Kennaook Cape Grim 6 21321112
Hobart 5 21321111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Apr :
Macquarie Island 11 11542001
Casey 7 23232101
Mawson 15 44433211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 3 (Quiet)
Hobart 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 0222 2122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 May 15 G0, chance of G1
02 May 15 G0, chance of G1
03 May 15 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 30-Apr. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 observed at Macquarie Island. G0 geomagnetic conditions are
expected over 01-03 May, with a chance of G1 due to coronal hole
high speed wind stream effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
02 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
03 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 30-Apr were
mostly normal. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to
be mostly normal over 01-03 May, with fair conditions at middle
to high latitudes due to 27-day recurrent geomagnetic activity
patterns. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Apr 119
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 126
Apr 115
May 113
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 May 115 Near predicted monthly values
02 May 115 Near predicted monthly values
03 May 115 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 42 was issued on
29 April and is current for 29 Apr to 1 May. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 30-Apr were near predicted
monthly values. Spread F was observed at Hobart during local
night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
over 01-03 May. Southern Australian region HF conditions may
become mildly degraded during local night hours over the forecast
period. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Apr
Speed: 407 km/sec Density: 5.3 p/cc Temp: 88300 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list