[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 29 March 25 issued 2330 UT on 29 Mar 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Mar 30 10:30:54 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 MARCH 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 30 MARCH - 01 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Mar: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.7 28/2339UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.4 2138UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M1.9 2300UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Mar: 157/111
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Mar 31 Mar 01 Apr
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 165/119 170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 29-Mar was R1, with three M1
flares from AR4045 (S14E53, alpha). The second and third flares
at 2136 UT may have caused a sympathetic reaction with AR4043
(N14E03, beta). There are currently six numbered sunspot regions
on the solar disk. AR4043, AR4044 (N17E25, beta) and AR4047 (S15W23,
beta) have all shown growth in the past day, although none have
a strong and dominate leader. AR4048 (S15E71, beta) is newly
rotating on the disk but appears the most complex region despite
limited visibility. Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1 over
30-31 Mar and 1-Apr, with isolated R2 events possible.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed on UT day 29-Mar with
available imagery.
S0 solar radiation storm condition storm conditions were observed
on UT day 29-Mar. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected
over 30-31 Mar and 1-Apr.
The solar wind environment continued to ease from the recent
coronal hole. The solar wind speed was on a decline and ranged from
634 to 466 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +5 to -3 nT.
The solar wind is expected to continue its declining trend, until a
possible glancing blow from the CME associated with the X1.1 flare on
28-Mar late in the UT day. This CME was directed far behind Earth's
orbit, but its wide shock wave may influence the Earth. After this
disturbance, the solar wind is expected to continue trending to
background levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 29 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 22211101
Cocos Island 3 22210100
Darwin 4 22211102
Townsville 5 23211201
Learmonth 5 23211101
Alice Springs 5 23211101
Gingin 4 22211101
Canberra 3 22111100
Kennaook Cape Grim 4 23111100
Hobart 3 22211100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Mar :
Macquarie Island 3 22111200
Casey 13 34531100
Mawson 12 35321211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 58 (Unsettled)
Canberra 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 16 2332 3433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Mar 12 G0, chance G1 late in UT day
31 Mar 18 G0, chance G1 early in UT day
01 Apr 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 29-Mar. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are generally
expected, although there may be a chance for G1 late on UT day
30-Mar or else early 31-Mar due to the potential arrival of the
CME associated with the recent X1.1 flare; it is not likely much
of the material will come to Earth, but its wide shock wave may
have a weak influence.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
01 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 29-Mar were
mostly normal, with persistent depressions in the northern hemisphere
at high latitudes. HF radio propagation conditions are expected
to be normal until late 30-Mar, as there a potential CME glancing
blow in the forecast. This may cause mild degradations into 310Mar,
but if this does not eventuate conditions are expected to remain
normal.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Mar 143
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 127
Mar 117
Apr 114
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Mar 135 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
31 Mar 130 Near predicted monthly values to 10% depressed
01 Apr 135 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 32 was issued on
29 March and is current for 29-31 Mar. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 29-Mar were near predicted
values to 25% enhanced. Sporadic-E was observed in Niue and Learmonth
during local night hours. MUfs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values over 30-31 Mar and 1-Apr, although brief depressions
are possible on 31-Mar due to a potential glancing CME blow.
Some enhancements may continue until this arrival.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Mar
Speed: 641 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 174000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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