[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 28 March 25 issued 2330 UT on 28 Mar 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Mar 29 10:30:49 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 MARCH 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 29 MARCH - 31 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Mar: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X1.1 1520UT probable all South American/
Atlantic
M1.1 1926UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Mar: 160/114
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Mar 30 Mar 31 Mar
Activity R0-R1, chance R2-R3 R0-R1, chance R2-R3 R0-R1, chance R2-R3
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 155/109 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 28-Mar was R3, with an isolated
X1.1 solar flare from a region beyond the eastern limb near or
at AR4046 (N05E73, beta). This event was followed by sympathetic
flaring from nearby regions AR4045 (S14E66, alpha) and AR4046
reaching M1.1 levels. Of the spots currently on the disk, most
are stable, however the region to produce the R3 level flare
cannot be properly analysed until is becomes more visible. Solar
activity is expected to be predominantly R0-R1 over 29-31 Mar,
however further isolated R3 events cannot be ruled out.
A filament eruption was observed from 1815 UT on 27-Mar, and was
associated with a southeastern CME from 2305 UT. This CME is not
expected to be geoeffective. A fast CME was associated with the R3
event that can be seen from 1524 UT, along with a prominence eruption,
however due to image availability analysis is limited. Given
the location of this event it is not likely to be geoeffective,
but a glancing blow is possible late on 30-Mar. No other noteworthy
CMEs were observed.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 28-Mar.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 29-31 Mar.
The solar wind environment on UT day 28-Mar showed signs of exiting
the coronal hole dominating the southern solar hemisphere. The solar
wind speed was on a declining trend, however is still currently elevated.
The solar wind speed ranged from 805 to 616 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the
north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +5 to -5 nT. The solar
wind environment is expected to continue returning to background
levels over 29 and most of 30-Mar. A possible glancing blow from a
CME may cause the solar wind to briefly be enhanced late 30-Mar and 31-Mar.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 28 Mar : A K
Australian Region 9 23222223
Cocos Island 6 23211212
Darwin 8 23222222
Townsville 11 33323222
Learmonth 11 23323223
Alice Springs 9 23222223
Gingin 11 22223333
Canberra 8 22222223
Kennaook Cape Grim 11 23323223
Hobart 11 23323223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Mar :
Macquarie Island 14 23334323
Casey 21 45532232
Mawson 39 35533366
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Alice Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gingin 85 (Minor storm)
Canberra 109 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 30 3444 55--
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Mar 10 G0
30 Mar 12 G0
31 Mar 14 G0, slight chance G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 28-Mar. G0-G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions are
expected over 29-31 Mar. There may be a slight chance for G1
on 31-Mar due to a possible glancing blow from a CME associated
with the R3 flare, however this is low confidence.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
31 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 28-Mar were
generally normal to fair, with mild degradations in high latitudes.
A shortwave fadeout affected the Americas from 1504 UT. HF radio
propagation conditions are expected to be mostly normal over
29-31 Mar, with some mild degradations during local night hours,
especially for high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Mar 131
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.ss
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 127
Mar 117
Apr 114
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Mar 125 Near predicted monthly values
30 Mar 125 Near predicted monthly values
31 Mar 120 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were near predicted values. Sporadic-E was observed in
Townsville and Brisbane during local night hours. MUFs are expected
to be mostly near predicted values over 29-31 Mar. Mild depressions
may be possible during local night hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Mar
Speed: 760 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 388000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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