[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 27 March 25 issued 2330 UT on 27 Mar 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Mar 28 10:30:53 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 MARCH 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 28 MARCH - 30 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Mar: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.0 0037UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Mar: 153/108
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Mar 29 Mar 30 Mar
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 150/105 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 27-Mar was R1 due to an isolated
M2 flare from solar region AR4043 (N13E32, beta-gamma). This
region has developed a weak region of mixed magnetic polarity
in its leader spots and has increased in longitudinal extent.
Aside from leader spot redistribution this region now appears
to be overall more open in spot configuration with a mix of both
growth and decay. Region AR4043 also produced a C8.8 flare at
27/2224UT. Other regions are very small. A new minor spot group
has rotated onto the solar disk over the southeast solar limb
and is numbered AR4045. A new currently unnumbered spot group
is rotating onto the solar disk at solar latitude N03, with perhaps
a moderately large leader spot just visible. There are currently
five numbered solar regions on the visible solar disk. A 15 degree
long solar filament visible in GONG solar imagery with centre located
at S30E35, erupted during the interval 27/2050-2200UT. Solar
activity is expected to be R0-R1 over 28-30 Mar. S0 solar radiation
storm conditions were observed on UT day 27-Mar. S0 solar radiation
storm conditions are expected over 28-30 Mar. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed. CME activity was observed to the north-northwest
from 27/0012UT, to the northeast from 27/0425UT and to the southwest
from 27/1449UT. There was a data gap in coronagraph imagery 27/0649-1425UT.
These CMEs could not be correlated to on disk activity. The filament
eruption is just visible in the latest available coronagraph
image as a narrow southeast directed CME. This CME will be modelled
as more images become available but at this stage does not appear
significantly Earth directed. The solar wind speed on UT day
28-Mar further increased due to the influence of a solar coronal
hole wind stream. The solar wind speed ranged from 580 to 870
km/s, and is currently at 770 km/sec. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 19 nT and the north-south IMF component
range (Bz) was +17 to -8 nT. The IMF Bz orientation was biased
more neutral to northwards during the UT day. The solar wind
speed is expected to be strong with a declining trend as the
recent influence from the coronal hole wind stream begins to
abate.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 27 Mar : A K
Australian Region 18 34334423
Cocos Island 12 33323322
Darwin 16 34334322
Townsville 18 34334423
Learmonth 26 53435433
Alice Springs 18 34334423
Gingin 19 43334433
Canberra 18 34344323
Kennaook Cape Grim 25 34445433
Hobart 22 34444433
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Mar :
Macquarie Island 52 34666644
Casey 35 66543332
Mawson 54 44644467
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Mar :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Learmonth 88 (Minor storm)
Alice Springs 85 (Minor storm)
Gingin 191 (Severe storm)
Canberra 165 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 23
Planetary 34
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 26
Planetary 48 4423 6664
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Mar 22 G0-G1
29 Mar 15 G0
30 Mar 10 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 22 was issued on 26 March
and is current for 27-28 Mar. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 27-Mar, with a mild
increase in geomagnetic activity associated with a coronal hole
wind stream. G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the
Antarctic region. Planetary G1 conditions were observed on 27-Mar.
G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 28-Mar, as the
recent coronal hole induced geomagnetic activity declines.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Mar Normal Fair-normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
29 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 27-Mar were
poor to normal with poor HF conditions at high latitudes. HF
radio propagation conditions for middle to high latitudes are
expected to be fair to normal over 28-Mar with an improving trend
as coronal hole induced geomagnetic activity declines.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Mar 120
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed 15% to near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced 15% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed 15% to near predicted monthly values.
Depressed 15% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 40% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 127
Mar 117
Apr 114
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Mar 100 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
29 Mar 125 Near predicted monthly values
30 Mar 125 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 27-Mar were depressed 15% to near predicted
values. Spread-F was observed at Perth, Hobart and Canberra during
local night hours. MUFs are expected to be 15% depressed to near
predicted monthly values on 28-Mar and near predicted monthly
values during 29-30 Mar, with a general improvement in HF conditions.
Mildly degraded HF conditions may be experienced during local
night hours on 28-Mar.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Mar
Speed: 425 km/sec Density: 17.2 p/cc Temp: 124000 K Bz: 5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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