[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 26 March 25 issued 2330 UT on 26 Mar 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Mar 27 10:30:55 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 MARCH 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 27 MARCH - 29 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Mar: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0809UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Mar: 152/107
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Mar 28 Mar 29 Mar
Activity R0,chance R1 R0,chance R1 R0,chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 160/114 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 26-Mar was R1 due to an isolated
M1 flare from solar region AR4043 (N14E46, beta). This region
is slowly growing with an increase in small intermediate spots.
Other regions are very small. There are currently four solar
regions on the visible solar disk. Solar activity is expected
to be R0, chance R1 over 27-29 Mar. S0 solar radiation storm
conditions were observed on UT day 26-Mar. S0 solar radiation
storm conditions are expected over 27-29 Mar. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed. CME activity was observed to the west from
26/0949UT and to the northeast from 16/1436UT and neither of
these CMEs could be correlated to on disk activity. The solar
wind speed on UT day 26-Mar increased after 26/0900UT. The solar
wind speed ranged from 333 to 654 km/s, and is currently at 608
km/sec. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 24 nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +19
to -21 nT, with the IMF Bz component was frequently oriented
southwards during the interval 26/1024-1330UT. The solar wind
speed is enhanced due to a coronal hole wind stream from a large
coronal hole in the southern solar hemisphere.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Mar: G1
Estimated Indices 26 Mar : A K
Australian Region 23 33334454
Cocos Island 18 22324444
Darwin 18 32334344
Townsville 22 33335344
Learmonth 31 33335555
Alice Springs 25 32334455
Gingin 27 33234555
Canberra 20 32234354
Kennaook Cape Grim 25 33235454
Hobart 27 33235455
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Mar :
Macquarie Island 38 33236655
Casey 32 44544445
Mawson 73 56345685
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 24
Planetary 33
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 15 3233 2343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Mar 30 G1-G2
28 Mar 22 G0-G1
29 Mar 15 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 22 was issued on 26 March
and is current for 27-28 Mar. G1 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 26-Mar. G1-G2 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. Planetary G2
conditions were observed on 26-Mar. G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 27-Mar, reducing to G0-G1 on 28-Mar, due to
a wind stream from a large coronal hole currently dominating
the southern solar hemisphere.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Mar Normal Fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Mar Normal Fair Fair-poor
28 Mar Normal Fair Poor-fair
29 Mar Normal Fair-normal Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 26-Mar were
fair to normal with poor HF conditions at high latitudes. HF
radio propagation conditions for middle to high latitudes are
expected to be fair-poor over 27-Mar and fair on 28-Mar due to
geomagnetic activity induced by a coronal hole wind stream.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Mar 113
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 35% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 127
Mar 117
Apr 114
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Mar 100 Depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
28 Mar 100 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
29 Mar 130 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 31 was issued on 26
March and is current for 27 Mar only. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 26-Mar were depressed
20% to near predicted values, with depressions observed in the
southern Australian region. Spread-F was observed in Hobart and
Canberra during local night hours. Southern Australian region
MUFs are expected to be 10-20% depressed over 27-Mar to 28-Mar.
HF communicators with ionospheric reflection points in the southern
Australian/NZ region should use a T-index of 70 on 27-Mar. Northern
Australian region MUFs are expected to remain near predicted
monthly values to 15% enhanced.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Mar
Speed: 377 km/sec Density: 8.5 p/cc Temp: 47300 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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