[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 25 March 25 issued 2330 UT on 25 Mar 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Mar 26 10:30:59 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 MARCH 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 26 MARCH - 28 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Mar: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Mar: 156/110
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Mar 27 Mar 28 Mar
Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts None expected Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 155/109 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 25-Mar was R0, with the largest
flare being C9 from the vicinity of AR4028 (S16W82) near the
western limb. There are currently four numbered sunspot regions
on the disk. AR4035 (N15W32, beta) is the largest, but nearing
the limb and hence visibility is restricted. AR4043 (N14E57,
beta) has shown some growth in the past day. Solar activity is
expected to mostly be R0, with a small chance for R1
over 26-28 Mar.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available
imagery, however there were long gaps in today's imagery.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 25-Mar.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 26-28 Mar.
The solar wind environment on UT day 25-Mar was mostly steady,
but a slight increase to the solar wind speed at the end of the
UT day may indicate connection to the coronal hole dominating
the southern solar hemisphere. The solar wind speed ranged from
343 to 400 km/s, currently on an incline. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 13 nT and the north-south IMF component
range (Bz) was +6 to -11 nT, with Bz oriented south from 1500
UT onwards. The solar wind speed is expected to become further
enhanced over 26-28 Mar, with stronger enhancements likely later
in the period due to the large coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Mar: G1
Estimated Indices 25 Mar : A K
Australian Region 14 22232352
Cocos Island 8 22221142
Darwin 9 22222242
Townsville 12 32232342
Learmonth 15 32232352
Alice Springs 12 22222252
Gingin 14 32221353
Canberra 12 22232343
Kennaook Cape Grim 15 22232353
Hobart 15 22232353
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Mar :
Macquarie Island 24 22352553
Casey 16 34432242
Mawson 21 34332345
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 30
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 19 4424 4433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Mar 22 G0-G1
27 Mar 25 G0-G1, chance G2
28 Mar 22 G0-G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 21 was issued on 23 March
and is current for 25-27 Mar. G1 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 25-Mar due to an
extended period of southward oriented Bz. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 26-28 Mar, with a chance for G2 on 27-Mar due
to a large coronal hole currently dominating the southern solar
hemisphere.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Mar Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
28 Mar Normal-fair Fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 25-Mar were
mostly normal. Sporadic-E was common near low latitudes and some
mild depressions began towards the end of the UT day. HF radio
propagation conditions are expected to be normal to fair over
26-28 Mar due to a large coronal hole. Equatorial scintillation
is possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Mar 130
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Enhanced by 50% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 127
Mar 117
Apr 114
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Mar 115 Near predicted monthly values to 10-15% depressed
27 Mar 110 Near predicted monthly values to 10-15% depressed
28 Mar 105 Near predicted monthly values to 10-20% depressed
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 25-Mar were near predicted values. Persistent
sporadic-E was observed in all low latitudes stations during
local night hours. Spread-F was observed in Hobart. MUFs are
expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT day
26-Mar, with mild depressions setting in possibly late in the
day. Depressions are expected to deepen over 27-28 Mar. Spread-F
is possible at high latitudes during local night hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Mar
Speed: 406 km/sec Density: 13.3 p/cc Temp: 91900 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list