[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 30 March 25 issued 2330 UT on 30 Mar 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Mar 31 10:30:59 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 MARCH 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 31 MARCH - 02 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Mar: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.9 29/2300UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.5 0148UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.6 1643UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.4 2250UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Mar: 171/125
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Mar 01 Apr 02 Apr
Activity R0-R2 R0-R2 R0-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 175/129 175/129
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 30-Mar was R1, with several
M1 flares from AR4048 (S15E59, beta-gamma). There are currently
six numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR4043 (N14W10,
beta), AR4044 (N17E10, beta), AR4046 (N05E44, beta) and AR4047
(S15W36, beta) appear to have goen through a growth phase and
are now all maturing. AR4048 (S15E59, beta-gamma) is the most
complex and flare active region on the disk and continues to
grow. Solar activity is expected to be R0-R2 over 31-Mar and
1-2 Apr, predominantly from 4048.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available imagery.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 30-Mar.
Despite a small enhancement, mostly S0 solar radiation storm conditions
are expected over 31-Mar and 1-2 Apr.
The solar wind environment continued its trend towards background conditions.
The solar wind speed ranged from 502 to 390 km/s and is currently near 400 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the
north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +5 to -5 nT. While the
CME from 28-Mar associated with the X-class flare has yet to
show signs of interacting with Earth, it is not yet ruled out
as a possibility as the ACE EPAM low energy electrons are still
on a steady incline. A brief disturbance is possible on 31-Mar
from this, although unlikely. Conditions on 1-2 Apr are expected
to be mostly quiet, although a slim coronal hole may increase
the solar wind speed for a short time in this period. .
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 30 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 22211111
Cocos Island 3 22211010
Darwin 4 22211011
Townsville 5 22221111
Learmonth 5 22211112
Alice Springs 3 22111011
Gingin 4 22211021
Canberra 3 12121101
Kennaook Cape Grim 4 12112111
Hobart 3 12211101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Mar :
Macquarie Island 1 11101100
Casey 14 35431111
Mawson 9 23321232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 16 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12 3412 2342
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Mar 18 G0, slight chance G1
01 Apr 12 G0
02 Apr 12 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 23 was issued on 30 March
and is current for 30-31 Mar. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 30-Mar. Mostly G0
geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Antarctic region,
with an isolated period of G1 in Casey. Mostly G0 geomagnetic
conditions are exected over 31-Mar and 1-2 Apr, with a slight
possibility of G1 on 31-Mar due to the passing by of the CME
from 28-Mar, however this is not considered likely.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
01 Apr Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
02 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mostly normal on
UT day 30-Mar, with sporadic depressions in the northern hemisphere
throughout the day. HF radio propagation conditions are generally
expected to be normal, with some mild degradations during local
night hours at high latitudes over 31-Mar and 1-2 Apr.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Mar 136
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 127
Mar 117
Apr 114
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Mar 130 Near predicted monthly values to 15-20% enhanced
01 Apr 135 Near predicted monthly values to 10-15% enhanced
02 Apr 140 Near predicted monthly values to 15-20% enhanced
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 32 was issued on
29 March and is current for 29-31 Mar. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 30-Mar were near predicted
values to 15% enhanced. Sporadic-E was observed in Brisbane and
Townsville during local night hours. Scintillation was observed
in Weipa from 1106 to 1130 UT. MUFs are generally expected to
be near predicted values to 15-20% enhanced over 31-Mar to 1-2
Apr.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Mar
Speed: 519 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 81600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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