[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 15 March 25 issued 2330 UT on 15 Mar 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Mar 16 10:30:53 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 MARCH 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 16 MARCH - 18 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Mar: R0
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 14/2221UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Mar: 178/131
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Mar 17 Mar 18 Mar
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 178/131 175/129
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 15-Mar was R0, with no significant
solar flares. There are currently ten numbered sunspot regions
on the solar disk, plus several unnamed regions developing. AR4019
(N07W33, beta) has grown and matured; while AR4021 (S06E10, beta),
AR4022 (N08W05, beta) and AR4028 (S18E37, beta) continue to grow.
All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar
activity is expected to be R0-R1.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 15-Mar.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 16-18 Mar.
A fast CME was observed from 0524 UT on UT day 15-Mar, directed well
ahead of the Earth's orbit. This event is not expected to be geoeffective.
No other CMEs were observed on this day.
The solar wind environment was mostly
steady on UT day 15-Mar, as Earth moves out of the influence
of the recent coronal hole. The solar wind speed ranged from
583 to 481 and is on a slowly declining trend. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south
IMF component range was +4 to -6 nT. The solar wind speed is
expected to return mostly to near background levels over 16-18
Mar, but may briefly increase as the tail end of the recent coronal
hole may possibly connect again on 17-Mar.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 15 Mar : A K
Australian Region 10 23224311
Cocos Island 8 23223300
Darwin 10 33223312
Townsville 10 33224211
Learmonth 13 33225301
Alice Springs 10 23224301
Gingin 11 32234311
Canberra 8 23233210
Kennaook Cape Grim 11 23334210
Hobart 9 23333210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Mar :
Macquarie Island 20 23355410
Casey 18 45433211
Mawson 37 66454421
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 20 5232 3434
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Mar 10 G0
17 Mar 12 G0
18 Mar 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 15-Mar, although there was an isolated period
of G1 at Learmonth. G0-G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions are
expected over 16-18 Mar. There is a small chance of further connection
to the recent coronal hole on 17-Mar, but this is not considered
significant.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Mar Normal-fair Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
18 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mildly degraded
during the first few hours of UT day 15-Mar, particularly in
the southern hemisphere. Conditions improved in most areas from
0900 UT onwards. HF radio propagation conditions are generally
expected to be normal over 16-18 Mar. Some mild degradations
are possible on 17-Mar.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Mar 142
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 127
Mar 117
Apr 114
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Mar 130 Near predicted monthly values to 20-30% enhanced
17 Mar 120 Near predicted monthly values to 15-20% enhanced
18 Mar 115 Near predicted monthly values to 10-15% enhanced
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 15-Mar were near predicted values to 35% enhanced.
Conditions in Darwin ionograms appeared heavily degraded, however
this may have been an artificial issue. Spread-F was observed
in Hobart. Scintillation was observed at Darwin and Weipa from
1027 to 1332 UT. MUFs are expected to be near predicted values
over 16-18 Mar; some 20-30% enhancements may continue on 16-Mar
but may lessen over the rest of the forecast period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Mar
Speed: 543 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 152000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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