[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 14 March 25 issued 2330 UT on 14 Mar 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Mar 15 10:30:58 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 MARCH 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 15 MARCH - 17 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Mar: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 2221UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Mar: 180/133
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Mar 16 Mar 17 Mar
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 180/133 180/133
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 14-Mar was R1, with an isolated
M1 flare from AR4028 (S18E48, beta). There are currently nine
numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR4019 (N07W21, beta)
appears to be maturing and its spots are diverging into two groups.
AR4022(N08E07, beta) and AR4028 have grown over the past day.
Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1 over 15-17 Mar.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 14-Mar.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 15-17 Mar.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed on UT day 14-Mar. The solar
wind environment on UT day 14-Mar was steady. The solar wind
speed ranged between 491 and 600 km/s, likely enhanced due to
ongoing coronal hole effects. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component
range (Bz) was +6 to -8 nT. The solar wind speed may continue
to be enhanced on 15-Mar, but conditions are expected to return
to near background levels over 15-17 Mar as Earth leaves the
influence of the coronal hole. While there is a small coronal
hole recently crossed the central meridian, this feature may
be too high a latitude to connect to Earth, and therefore any
influence from this is expected to be minimal over the forecast
period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 14 Mar : A K
Australian Region 13 32333323
Cocos Island 9 32223321
Darwin 13 32333323
Townsville 14 32333333
Learmonth 14 32333423
Alice Springs 13 32333323
Gingin 17 43333423
Canberra 13 32333323
Kennaook Cape Grim 13 32333323
Hobart 13 32333323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Mar :
Macquarie Island 25 43354443
Casey 25 54543323
Mawson 52 65444656
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 57 (Unsettled)
Canberra 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 26
Planetary 38 5545 6454
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Mar 13 G0
16 Mar 10 G0
17 Mar 6 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 17 was issued on 14 March
and is current for 14-15 Mar. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 14-Mar, despite the
average planetary conditions reaching G2. G0-G2 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 15-17 Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were generally normal
on UT day 14-Mar in mid to low latitudes, and fair to poor in
high latitudes. HF radio propagation conditions are expected
to return to normal on 15-Mar, with brief degradations during
local night hours at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Mar 109
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 127
Mar 117
Apr 114
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Mar 100 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed
16 Mar 100 Near predicted monthly values
17 Mar 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 14-Mar were mostly near predicted values to
15% enhanced. Spread-F was observed in Hobart during local night
hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted values to 15% depressed
on 15-Mar. Conditions may begin to recover and spread-F may clear
over 16-17 Mar.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Mar
Speed: 525 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 123000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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