[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 13 March 25 issued 2331 UT on 13 Mar 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Mar 14 10:31:20 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 MARCH 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 14 MARCH - 16 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Mar: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Mar: 175/129
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Mar 15 Mar 16 Mar
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 170/124 170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 13-Mar was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares. There are a total of eleven sunspot
regions and one unnumbered region visible on the solar disk.
AR4019 (N07W06, beta-gamma-delta) remains the largest and most
magnetically complex sunspot region on the solar disk. This region
showed development on 13-Mar. AR4024 (N07W80, beta), AR4025 (N10E34,
beta) and AR4028 (S18E64, beta) also showed spot development
over the UT day. An unnumbered region has developed at S10E17
with beta magnetic characteristics. All other active regions
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to
be at R0-R1 levels over 14-16 Mar. Solar radiation storm conditions
were at the S0 level on 13-Mar. S0 conditions are expected over
14-16 Mar. No Earth directed CMEs were observed on UT day 13-Mar.
The solar wind speed on UT day 13-Mar was elevated but steady,
mostly ranging between 475 km/s and 580 km/s and is currently
at around 550 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz)
was +8 to -8 nT. IMF Bz conditions were significantly southward
for several periods over the UT day 13-Mar. The Earth is currently
experiencing high speed wind stream effects from a long coronal
hole in the southern hemisphere. These effects are expected to
persist over 14-16 Mar.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Mar: G1
Estimated Indices 13 Mar : A K
Australian Region 19 33345233
Cocos Island 13 32333332
Darwin 16 32344233
Townsville 19 33345233
Learmonth 22 34345333
Alice Springs 19 33345233
Gingin 26 33346343
Canberra 19 33345233
Kennaook Cape Grim 26 33356233
Hobart 23 33355243
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Mar :
Macquarie Island 61 45577453
Casey 38 56545334
Mawson 66 56665474
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 7 (Quiet)
Learmonth 9 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 7 (Quiet)
Gingin 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 53 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 24
Planetary 35
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 34 3434 5565
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Mar 35 G1
15 Mar 16 G0, chance of G1
16 Mar 8 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 16 was issued on 12 March
and is current for 12-14 Mar. Mostly G1 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Australian region on UT day 13-Mar, with
G2 conditions observed at Gingin and Kennaook Cape Grim. Mostly
G3 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Antarctic region.
G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 14-Mar and G0 conditions,
with a chance of G1 are expected on 15-Mar due to ongoing coronal
hole high speed wind stream effects. G0 conditions are expected
on 16-Mar.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Mar Fair Poor-fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Mar Fair Fair Fair-poor
15 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
16 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were generally poor
for the first half of the UT day 13-Mar. A recovery towards fair
to normal was observed by 1200UT. Conditions then deteriorated
again in the last third of the UT day. Worse conditions were
observed in the southern hemisphere. HF radio propagation conditions
are expected to be mostly fair to poor on 14-Mar and normal to
fair over 15-16 Mar due to ongoing coronal hole high speed wind
stream effects. The strongest degradations are expected to be
in the southern hemisphere and at higher latitudes. Brief shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Mar 88
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 127
Mar 117
Apr 114
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Mar 90 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
15 Mar 100 Near predicted monthly values
16 Mar 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 29 was issued on 12
March and is current for 12-14 Mar. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 12-Mar were near predicted monthly values to
depressed by 25% in the southern Australian region and by 15%
in the northern Australian region. Spread F was observed at Hobart
and sporadic E was observed at Brisbane and Hobart. MUFs are
expected to be near monthly predicted values to depressed by
up to 15% on 15-Mar. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values over 15-16 Mar. The most significant depressions are expected
in the southern Australian region. Spread-F may be present at
local night hours in high latitudes. Brief shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Mar
Speed: 463 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 61100 K Bz: -7 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list