[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 12 March 25 issued 2330 UT on 12 Mar 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Mar 13 10:30:44 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 MARCH 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 13 MARCH - 15 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Mar: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Mar: 160/114
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Mar 14 Mar 15 Mar
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 165/119 170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 12-Mar was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares. There are a total of eleven sunspot
regions and one unnumbered region visible on the solar disk.
AR4019 (N07E06, beta-delta) showed significant spot development
and is the largest and most magnetically complex active region
on the solar disk. AR4022 (N08E35, beta), AR4025 (N10E47, beta),
AR4026 (S20E51, beta) and AR4027 (N12W18, beta) also showed spot
development. An unnumbered region has recently rotated onto the
solar disk at around S18E80 with possibly beta magnetic characteristics.
This region appears to be relatively active based on SDO imagery
on the limb and may be the return of AR3998 which is expected
at this time. AR3998 produced four M-class flares last time it
was on the visible solar disk. All other active regions are either
stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1
levels over 13-15 Mar. Solar radiation storm conditions were
at the S0 level on 12-Mar. S0 conditions are expected over 13-15
Mar. No Earth directed CMEs were observed on UT day 12-Mar. The
solar wind speed on UT day 12-Mar increased mostly ranging between
350 km/s and 560 km/s and is currently at around 560 km/s. The
peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 12 nT
and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +11 to -11 nT.
IMF Bz conditions were significantly southward for the majority
of the UT day 13-Mar. The Earth is currently experiencing high
speed wind stream effects from a long coronal hole in the southern
hemisphere. These effects are expected to persist over 13-15
Mar.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 12 Mar : A K
Australian Region 19 33334443
Cocos Island 16 22233452
Darwin 16 32234433
Townsville 18 32334443
Learmonth 24 33335453
Alice Springs 18 33334442
Gingin 22 33334453
Canberra 17 22334443
Kennaook Cape Grim 24 33334553
Hobart 27 33335553
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Mar :
Macquarie Island 44 24356663
Casey 34 44654443
Mawson 71 56555853
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 23
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11 2223 3323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Mar 25 G0-G1
14 Mar 16 G0, chance of G1
15 Mar 8 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 16 was issued on 12 March
and is current for 12-14 Mar. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Australian region on UT day 12-Mar, with
G1 conditions observed at Cocos Islands, Learmonth, Gingin, Kennaook
Cape Grim and Hobart. Mostly G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region, with a period of G4 observed at Mawson.
G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 13-Mar and G0 conditions,
with a chance of G1 are expected on 14-Mar due to ongoing coronal
hole high speed wind stream effects. G0 conditions are expected
on 15-Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Mar Normal-fair Fair-poor Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Mar Fair Fair Fair-poor
14 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
15 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were generally fair
to poor on UT day 12-Mar with significant degradations in the
southern hemisphere mostly in the first and third thirds of the
UT day. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be mostly
fair on 13-Mar and normal to fair over 14-15 Mar due to ongoing
coronal hole high speed wind stream effects. The strongest degradations
are expected to be in the southern hemisphere and at higher latitudes.
Brief shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Mar 99
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 35% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 127
Mar 117
Apr 114
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Mar 85 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
14 Mar 95 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
15 Mar 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 29 was issued on 12
March and is current for 12-14 Mar. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 12-Mar were depressed by 25-40% in the southern
Australian region. MUFs were near predicted monthly values to
depressed by 20% in the northern Australian region. Scintillation
was observed at Darwin at around 1318UT. Spread F was observed
at Hobart and sporadic E was observed at Brisbane. MUFs are expected
to be 15-20% depressed over on 13-Mar. MUFs are expected to be
near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed on 14-Mar and
near predicted monthly values on 15-Mar. The most significant
depressions are expected in the southern Australian region. Spread-F
may be present at local night hours in high latitudes. Brief
shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Mar
Speed: 447 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 135000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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