[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 11 March 25 issued 2330 UT on 11 Mar 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Mar 12 10:30:55 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 MARCH 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 12 MARCH - 14 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Mar: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 1304UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Mar: 161/115
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Mar 13 Mar 14 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Moderate to high
Fadeouts Possible Possible Probable
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 165/119 170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 11-Mar was R1, with an isolated
M1.1 solar flare from AR4024 (N07W48, beta). There are a total
of eight numbered sunspots. AR4019 (N07E21, beta), AR4021 (S06E63,
beta-gamma) and AR4022 (N08E50, beta) have all grown i the past
day, although their trailing spots are quite dispersed around
the leader. Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1 over 12-14
Mar.
No Earth directed CMEs were observed on UT day 11-Mar. S0
solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 11-Mar.
The 10 MeV protons began a slight increase from 1140 UT, likely
from a farside event, however this is not expected to reach the
S1 threshold. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected
over 12-14 Mar.
The solar wind environment on UT day 11-Mar was
mostly undisturbed. The solar wind speed ranged from 530 trending
to near 400 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz)
was +5 to -6 nT. The solar wind speed may increase over 12-14
Mar due to a coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 11 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 11222112
Cocos Island 3 10112112
Darwin 5 11222112
Townsville 6 21232112
Learmonth 6 21222212
Alice Springs 5 11222112
Gingin 6 21222212
Canberra 6 11223112
Kennaook Cape Grim 8 12233212
Hobart 7 12223212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Mar :
Macquarie Island 13 01335321
Casey 17 35433222
Mawson 19 34533233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9 3123 3223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Mar 16 G0, chance G1
13 Mar 16 G0-G1
14 Mar 14 G0-G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 11-Mar. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are likely
over 12-14 Mar due to coronal hole activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Mar Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
13 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
14 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were generally normal
on UT day 11-Mar with some degradation in the southern hemisphere
in the first half of the UT day. HF radio propagation conditions
are expected to be normal to mildly degraded over 12-14 Mar due
to coronal hole activity. Degraded conditions are possible during
local night hours. Brief shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Mar 104
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 127
Mar 117
Apr 114
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Mar 110 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed
13 Mar 100 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
14 Mar 95 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 11-Mar were
near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed in the Australian
region. Scintillation was observed at Weipa from 1140 UT to 11:59
UT. MUFs are expected to be near predicted values to 20% depressed
over 12-14 Mar due to coronal hole activity. Spread-F may be
present at local night hours in high latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Mar
Speed: 543 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 235000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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