[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 10 March 25 issued 2330 UT on 10 Mar 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Tue Mar 11 10:30:50 AEDT 2025

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 MARCH 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 11 MARCH - 13 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Mar:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Mar: 149/104

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Mar             12 Mar             13 Mar
Activity     R0-R1              R0-R1              R0-R1
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   160/114            165/119            165/119

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 10-Mar was at the R0 level, 
with no significant flaring activity. There are currently five 
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and three 
unnumbered regions. AR4019 (N07E35, beta) is the largest region 
on the disk and has exhibited spot development in its trailer 
spots over the UT day. Newly numbered AR4021 (S02W71, beta) recently 
rotated over the eastern limb and is stable. Three unnumbered 
regions are visible near N08W39 (alpha), N10E52 (beta) and N25E73 
(alpha). All unnumbered regions have shown spot growth over the 
24-hour period. All other sunspot regions are either stable or 
in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 
11-13 Mar. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The solar 
wind speed on UT day 10-Mar declined, ranging from 450 to 625 
km/s and is currently near 450 km/s. The peak total interplanetary 
magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south 
IMF component (Bz) range was +5 to -8 nT. The solar wind speed 
is expected to decline on 11-Mar, then increase in the second 
half of 12-Mar due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects 
from a southern hemisphere coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Mar: G0

Estimated Indices 10 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22222212
      Cocos Island         5   21122211
      Darwin               6   22222212
      Townsville           6   21222212
      Learmonth            9   32222322
      Alice Springs        6   22222212
      Gingin               8   32222222
      Canberra             7   22232202
      Kennaook Cape Grim   7   22232211
      Hobart               8   22232311    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    10   23333301
      Casey               21   35532323
      Mawson              24   34333355

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              11   (Quiet)
      Canberra            12   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             17                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        24
           Planetary             30   4546 4434     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Mar    14    G0, chance of G1
12 Mar    16    G0, chance of G1
13 Mar    16    G0, chance of G1

COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 15 was issued on 9 March and 
is current for 9-11 Mar. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Australian region on UT day 10-Mar. G1 geomagnetic conditions 
were observed in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions 
are expected over 11-13 Mar, with a chance of G1 due to coronal 
hole high speed wind stream effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Mar      Normal         Normal         Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
12 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
13 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mostly normal on 
UT day 10-Mar, with fair conditions at high latitudes. Mostly 
normal to fair HF conditions are expected over 11-13 Mar due 
to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects. Shortwave fadeouts 
are possible.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
10 Mar   104

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      127
Mar      117
Apr      114

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Mar   110    Near predicted monthly values
12 Mar   110    Near predicted monthly values
13 Mar   110    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 10-Mar in 
the Australian region were near predicted monthly values. Spread 
F was observed at Hobart during local night hours. Ionospheric 
scintillation was observed at Weipa over the interval 10/1108-1250UT. 
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 11-13 
Mar. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.6

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Mar
Speed: 604 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:   324000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au