[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 09 March 25 issued 2330 UT on 09 Mar 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Mar 10 10:30:57 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 MARCH 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 10 MARCH - 12 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Mar: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Mar: 148/102
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Mar 11 Mar 12 Mar
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 160/114 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 09-Mar was at the R0 level.
There are currently five numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk and one unnumbered region. AR4012 (S15W34, beta-gamma)
remains the largest region on the solar disk, but is currently
in decay. AR4019 (N07E47, beta-delta) showed spot development
over the UT day and developed a delta spot. AR4018 (S19E23, beta)
also showed development of trailer spots. An unnumbered region
is visible at N06W60 with beta magnetic complexity. All other
sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 10-12 Mar. S0 solar radiation
storm conditions were observed on 09-Mar. S0 conditions are expected
over 10-12 Mar. No geoeffective CMEs were observed on 09-Mar.
The solar wind speed increased on 09-Mar ranging between 405
km/s and 710 km/s and is currently near 600 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 16 nT and
the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +11 to -13 nT. From
the beginning of 09-Mar to 19/1200UT Bz conditions were mostly
significantly southward. Elevated solar wind speeds are expected
over 10-11 Mar due to ongoing coronal hole high speed wind stream
effects, with a chance of a decline over 11-12 Mar. A smaller
coronal hole in the southern hemisphere is expected to be in
a geoeffective position on 12-Mar which may produce a further
increase in solar wind speed.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Mar: G2
Estimated Indices 09 Mar : A K
Australian Region 19 33354323
Cocos Island 13 33343222
Darwin 16 33344322
Townsville 19 33354323
Learmonth 20 53344223
Alice Springs 19 33354323
Gingin 21 43354233
Canberra 20 33454223
Kennaook Cape Grim 27 33465323
Hobart 27 33465323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Mar :
Macquarie Island 41 35566433
Casey 42 46744323
Mawson 50 45565456
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 51 (Unsettled)
Canberra 71 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 34
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 20 2243 2454
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Mar 25 G0-G1
11 Mar 16 G0, chance of G1
12 Mar 16 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 15 was issued on 9 March and
is current for 9-11 Mar. G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 09-Mar, with periods of G2
conditions observed at Kennaook Cape Grim and Hobart. Mostly
G2 conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, with G3
conditions observed at Casey. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are
expected on 10-Mar. G0 conditions, with a chance of G1 are expected
on 11-12 Mar due to ongoing coronal hole high speed wind stream
effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Mar Fair-poor Poor-fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Mar Fair Fair Fair-poor
11 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
12 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mostly poor to
fair on UT day 09-Mar, with the strongest degradations observed
in the southern hemisphere. Mostly fair HF conditions are expected
on 10-Mar due to ongoing coronal hole high speed wind stream
effects. Mostly normal to fair conditions are expected on 11-12
Mar. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Mar 64
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 35% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 127
Mar 117
Apr 114
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Mar 90 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
11 Mar 120 Near predicted monthly values
12 Mar 120 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 28 was issued on 9 March
and is current for 9-10 Mar. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
on UT day 09-Mar in the Australian region were depressed by up
to 35%, with the strongest depressions observed in the southern
Australian region. Spread F was observed at Hobart and Perth
during local night hours. Sporadic E was observed at Learmonth.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values to depressed
by 15% on 10-Mar. MUFs are expected to recover to near predicted
monthly values over 11-12 Mar. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Mar
Speed: 445 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 127000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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