[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 08 March 25 issued 2331 UT on 08 Mar 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Mar 9 10:31:36 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 MARCH 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 09 MARCH - 11 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Mar: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Mar: 148/102
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Mar 10 Mar 11 Mar
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 155/109 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 08-Mar was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares observed. There are currently four
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and two unnumbered
regions. AR4012 (S15W20, beta-gamma) remains the largest and
most magnetically complex region on the solar disk, but is currently
in decay. An unnumbered region has recently developed on the
solar disk at around N07W46 with alpha magnetic complexity. A
further unnumbered region has recently rotated onto the visible
disk at around N22E75, also with alpha magnetic complexity. All
other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 09-11 Mar. S0 solar radiation
storm conditions were observed on 08-Mar. S0 conditions are expected
over 09-11 Mar. No geoeffective CMEs were observed on 08-Mar.
A CME associated with the M1.6 flare on 08-Mar was observed and
assessed to not be geoeffective. Two, narrow CMEs were observed
on 08-Mar at 08/0736UT and at 08/0936UT to the southwest and
northwest respectively in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery. Both of
these are far side events and are not considered to be geoeffective.
The solar wind speed increased on 08-Mar due to the arrival of
a high speed wind stream from an equatorial coronal hole in a
geoeffective location. The wind speed mostly ranged between 380
km/s and 620 km/s and is currently near 510 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 19 nT and
the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +9 to -14 nT. A
sustained period of significant southward Bz was observed, beginning
at around 09/1530UT and ending at around 09/2300UT. Elevated
solar wind speeds are expected over 09-11 Mar, with a decline
possible on 11-Mar due to ongoing coronal hole high speed wind
stream effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 08 Mar : A K
Australian Region 15 22332443
Cocos Island 15 33222443
Darwin 14 33232433
Townsville 16 33333433
Learmonth 23 32333545
Alice Springs 13 22332433
Gingin 16 22332444
Canberra 13 22342333
Kennaook Cape Grim 18 22442344
Hobart 16 22442343
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Mar :
Macquarie Island 20 22453343
Casey 23 44432444
Mawson 40 24433376
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 1323 2331
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Mar 25 G0-G1
10 Mar 18 G0-G1
11 Mar 15 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 14 was issued on 8 March and
is current for 8-10 Mar. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 08-Mar, with G1 conditions
observed at Learmonth. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region, with G3-G2 conditions observed at Mawson
and a period of G1 observed at Macquarie Island. G0-G1 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 09-10 Mar and G0 conditions, with
a chance of G1 are expected on 11-Mar due to ongoing coronal
hole high speed wind stream effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Mar Fair Fair Fair-poor
10 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
11 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mostly normal on
UT day 08-Mar, with degradations observed at the end of the UT
day. Mostly normal to fair HF conditions are expected over 09-10
Mar due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Mostly normal conditions
are expected on 11-Mar. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Mar 141
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 127
Mar 117
Apr 114
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Mar 120 Near predicted monthly values
10 Mar 125 Near predicted monthly values
11 Mar 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 08-Mar in
the Australian region were near predicted monthly values, with
depressions of up to 35% after local dawn in the southern hemisphere.
Ionospheric scintillation was observed at Niue at 08/0908UT.
MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 09-10
Mar, with a chance of mild depressions. MUFs are expected to
recover to near predicted monthly values, with a chance of 15%
enhancements on 11-Mar. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Mar
Speed: 393 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 73400 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list