[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 07 March 25 issued 2331 UT on 07 Mar 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Mar 8 10:31:10 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 MARCH 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 08 MARCH - 10 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Mar: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.6 2100UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Mar: 147/101
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Mar 09 Mar 10 Mar
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 07-Mar was at the R1 level,
due to an M1.6 flare at 08/2100UT. There are currently seven
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR4012 (S15W03,
beta-gamma) is the largest and most magnetically complex region
on the solar disk, but showed spot decay over the UT day. AR3016
(S24E11, beta) was responsible for the sole M-class flare on
07-Mar, but has also shown spot decay. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to
be at R0-R1 levels over 08-10 Mar. S0 solar radiation storm conditions
were observed on 07-Mar. S0 conditions are expected over 08-10
Mar. A south directed CME from 07/0200UT is visible in SOHO and
STEREO-A, associated with a filament lift off visible from 07/0117UT
in SDO, GOES SUVI and H-Alpha imagery at around S29E38. Modelling
indicates this CME is directed too far to the south to have a
geoeffective component. A northwest directed CME is visible from
07/1647UT in SOHO imagery. Activity behind the limb is visible
in SDO and GOES SUVI imagery and this CME is not considered geoeffective.
An erupting filament is visible at around S35 on the western
limb from 07/1856UT in SDO, GOES SUVI and H-Alpha imagery. An
associated CME is visible in SOHO imagery but there is not currently
sufficient coronagraph imagery to perform a full analysis of
this event. Analysis will be performed once more imagery becomes
available, however, this CME is directed far to the west and
will likely only have a glancing impact with Earth at most. SDO
and GOES SUVI imagery show the potential for a CME associated
with the M1.6 flare at 08/2100UT at around S23E10. No coronagraph
imagery is yet available for this CME. Further analysis will
be performed if a CME is observed in later imagery. Due to the
location of this event, any associated CME is likely to have
a geoeffective component. The solar wind speed was steady on
UT day 07-Mar, mostly ranging between 340 km/s and 470 km/s and
is currently near 395 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +7 to -7 nT. An increase in solar wind speed is
expected in the second half of 08-Mar due to an equatorial coronal
hole rotating towards a geoeffective position. Elevated solar
wind speeds are expected over 09-10 Mar.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 07 Mar : A K
Australian Region 8 22222322
Cocos Island 6 22222220
Darwin 7 23222212
Townsville 7 12222322
Learmonth 7 22222321
Alice Springs 6 22222212
Gingin 7 22221321
Canberra 7 12222322
Kennaook Cape Grim 9 12331322
Hobart 10 13331322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Mar :
Macquarie Island 11 12242421
Casey 17 34533222
Mawson 14 24333331
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1122 0223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Mar 12 G0, chance of G1
09 Mar 25 G0-G1
10 Mar 18 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 13 was issued on 7 March and
is current for 9-10 Mar. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 07-Mar. Mostly G0 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated
period of G1 observed at Casey. G0 geomagnetic conditions, with
a chance of G1 are expected on 08-Mar. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions
are expected on 09-Mar and G0 conditions, with a chance of G1
are expected on 10-Mar. Anticipated geomagnetic activity is due
to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects from an equatorial
coronal hole rotating towards a geoeffective position.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Mar Fair Fair Fair-poor
10 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mostly normal on
UT day 07-Mar. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected on 08-Mar.
Normal to fair conditions are expected on 09-10 Mar due to anticipated
geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Mar 145
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 127
Mar 117
Apr 114
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Mar 140 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Mar 125 Near predicted monthly values
10 Mar 125 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 07-Mar in
the Australian region were near predicted monthly values, with
mild enhancements in the northern Australian region. MUFs are
expected to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
on 08-Mar. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
over 09-10 Mar. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Mar
Speed: 400 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 59900 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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