[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 06 March 25 issued 2330 UT on 06 Mar 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Mar 7 10:30:56 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 MARCH 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 07 MARCH - 09 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Mar: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Mar: 150/105
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Mar 08 Mar 09 Mar
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 165/119 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 06-Mar was at the R0 level,
with no significant flaring activity. There are currently seven
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR4012 (S15E10,
beta) is the largest region on the disk and has shown decay in
its trailer spots, whilst its intermediate spots have mildly
grown. AR4011 (S19W04, beta) and AR4018 (S19E67, beta) have both
exhibited mild spot growth. AR4007 (S11W81, beta) has decayed
and will soon rotate over the western limb. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at R0-R1 levels over 07-09 Mar. No Earth-directed CMEs
have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 06-Mar declined,
ranging from 375 to 440 km/s and is currently near 395 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +8
to -7 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain near background
levels on 07-Mar, then increase in the second half of 08-Mar
due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects from an equatorial
coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 06 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 22220121
Cocos Island 3 -1210120
Darwin 5 22220122
Townsville 6 22221122
Learmonth 6 32220121
Alice Springs 5 22220122
Gingin 5 22210131
Canberra 4 12220021
Kennaook Cape Grim 5 22220121
Hobart 5 22220121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Mar :
Macquarie Island 2 12110010
Casey 18 35531122
Mawson 19 33322262
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 10 3332 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Mar 8 G0
08 Mar 12 G0
09 Mar 20 G0-G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 06-Mar. Mostly G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period
of G2 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 07-08 Mar. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected on
09-Mar due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects from
an equatorial coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mostly normal on
UT day 06-Mar. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over
07-08 Mar. Normal to fair conditions are expected on 09-Mar due
to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Mar 138
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 127
Mar 117
Apr 114
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Mar 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 Mar 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
09 Mar 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 06-Mar in
the Australian region were near predicted monthly values. Mild
spread F was observed at Hobart. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 07-09 Mar. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Mar
Speed: 435 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 64200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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