[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 05 March 25 issued 2330 UT on 05 Mar 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Mar 6 10:30:54 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 MARCH 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 06 MARCH - 08 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Mar: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.7 1150UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Mar: 157/111
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Mar 07 Mar 08 Mar
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 155/109 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 05-Mar was at the R1 level
due to an M1.7 flare at 05/1150UT produced by AR4012 (S15E23,
beta). There are currently eight numbered sunspot regions visible
on the solar disk. AR4012 is the largest region on the disk and
has shown some decay in its intermediate spots. AR4016 (S24E37,
beta) has exhibited spot growth over the UT day. Newly numbered
regions AR4017 (S05E62, alpha) and AR4018 (S19E79, alpha) recently
rotated over the eastern limb and appear stable. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at R0-R1 levels over 06-08 Mar. No Earth-directed CMEs
have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 05-Mar declined,
ranging from 400 to 490 km/s and is currently near 430 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +7
to -7 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to decline over 06-08
Mar. An equatorial coronal hole is currently crossing the central
meridian and is expected to influence the solar wind speed on
09-Mar.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 05 Mar : A K
Australian Region 6 22121312
Cocos Island 4 22111210
Darwin 6 22121312
Townsville 8 32221322
Learmonth 7 32121312
Alice Springs 6 22121312
Gingin 6 32121211
Canberra 6 22122212
Kennaook Cape Grim 8 23222321
Hobart 8 23222312
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Mar :
Macquarie Island 12 23343311
Casey 18 45432222
Mawson 21 44332335
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9 1201 2234
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Mar 10 G0
07 Mar 8 G0
08 Mar 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 05-Mar. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with isolated periods of G1
observed at Casey and Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 06-08 Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mostly normal on
UT day 05-Mar. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over
06-08 Mar. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Mar 137
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 127
Mar 117
Apr 114
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Mar 125 Near predicted monthly values
07 Mar 125 Near predicted monthly values
08 Mar 125 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 05-Mar in
the Australian region were near predicted monthly values to 15%
enhanced. Mild spread F was observed at Hobart. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values over 06-08 Mar. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Mar
Speed: 482 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 132000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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