[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 04 March 25 issued 2330 UT on 04 Mar 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Mar 5 10:30:52 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 MARCH 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 05 MARCH - 07 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Mar: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Mar: 160/114
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Mar 06 Mar 07 Mar
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 170/124 170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 04-Mar was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares. There are currently eight numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and two unnumbered
regions. AR4012 (S15E34, beta-gamma) and newly numbered AR4015
(N29W30, beta) and AR4016 (S24E49, beta-gamma) showed spot development,
with AR4012 and AR4016 developing gamma magnetic complexity.
All other numbered sunspot regions are in decay. Two unnumbered
regions have recently developed on the solar disk at N28W07 and
N11W06 with alpha magnetic complexity. Solar activity is expected
to be at the R0 level over 05-07 Mar, with a chance of R1. S0
solar radiation storm conditions were observed on 04-Mar. S0
conditions are expected on 05-07 Mar. No Earth-directed CMEs
have been observed. The solar wind speed was elevated and steady
on 04-Mar. The wind speed mostly ranged between 425 km/s and
540 km/s. The current wind speed is around 470 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +7 to -8 nT. A sustained
period of significant -Bz began at 04/1920UT to 04/2200UT. The
solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated on 05-Mar, with
a slow decline possible over 05-07 Mar.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 04 Mar : A K
Australian Region 6 12211223
Cocos Island 7 12111124
Darwin 5 12111213
Townsville 7 12222223
Learmonth 7 22211223
Alice Springs 6 12221213
Gingin 8 22211124
Canberra 6 12212123
Kennaook Cape Grim 9 13212224
Hobart 9 13212124
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Mar :
Macquarie Island 5 12111113
Casey 30 46532135
Mawson 32 24322257
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 12 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1101 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Mar 10 G0, chance of G1
06 Mar 8 G0
07 Mar 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 04-Mar. G2-G3 conditions were observed in the
Australian region, with G0 conditions observed at Macquarie Island.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 05-07 Mar, with a
chance of G1 on 05-Mar due to ongoing high speed wind stream
effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Mar Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mostly normal on
UT day 04-Mar, with fair conditions at equatorial latitudes.
Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 05-07 Mar.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Mar 129
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 127
Mar 117
Apr 114
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Mar 125 Near predicted monthly values
06 Mar 120 Near predicted monthly values
07 Mar 120 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 04-Mar in
the Australian region were near predicted monthly values. Mild
spread F was observed at Hobart. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values over 05-07 Mar.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Mar
Speed: 478 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 102000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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