[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 03 March 25 issued 2330 UT on 03 Mar 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Tue Mar 4 10:30:55 AEDT 2025

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 MARCH 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 04 MARCH - 06 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Mar:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Mar: 145/99

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Mar             05 Mar             06 Mar
Activity     R0, chance of R1   R0, chance of R1   R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             140/94             150/105

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 03-Mar was at the R0 level. 
There are currently six numbered sunspot regions visible on the 
solar disk. AR4007 (S12W44, beta) is currently the largest active 
region and showed spot development over the UT day. AR4012 (S13E542 
beta) also showed spot development on 03-Mar. All other numbered 
sunspot regions are in decay. Two unnumbered regions have recently 
developed on the solar disk at N27E08 and S13E36 with beta magnetic 
characteristics. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level 
over 04-06 Mar, with a chance of R1. S0 solar radiation storm 
conditions were observed on 03-Mar. S0 conditions are expected 
on 04-06 Mar. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The 
solar wind speed on UT day was steady and elevated on 03-Mar, 
ranging from 430 to 520 km/s and is currently near 500 km/s. 
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +7 to -4 
nT. A mild increase in the solar wind speed is possible on 04-Mar 
due to a glancing arrival of a CME first observed on 01-Mar. 
A slow decline in solar wind speed is expected over 05-06 Mar.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Mar: G0

Estimated Indices 03 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21111011
      Cocos Island         1   11110010
      Darwin               3   21111012
      Townsville           4   21121112
      Learmonth            4   22111112
      Alice Springs        3   21211011
      Gingin               3   21111012
      Canberra             3   21111011
      Kennaook Cape Grim   2   21111001
      Hobart               3   21211011    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     2   11110011
      Casey               20   55432122
      Mawson               7   32212113

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               9   (Quiet)
      Canberra            22   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   1122 2222     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Mar    12    G0, chance of G1
05 Mar     8    G0
06 Mar     8    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 03-Mar. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in 
the Australian region, with G1 conditions observed at Casey. 
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 04-06 Mar, with a 
chance of G1 on 04-Mar due to the possible glancing arrival of 
a CME first observed on 01-Mar.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
05 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
06 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were mostly normal on 
UT day 03-Mar, with some degradations at the start of the UT 
day. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 04-06 Mar.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
03 Mar   122

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      127
Mar      117
Apr      114

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Mar   125    Near predicted monthly values
05 Mar   120    Near predicted monthly values
06 Mar   120    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 02-Mar in 
the Australian region were near predicted monthly values, with 
enhancements of up to 15% in the northern Australian region during 
local day hours. Spread F was observed at Hobart. MUFs are expected 
to be near predicted monthly values over 04-06 Mar.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Mar
Speed: 515 km/sec  Density:    2.5 p/cc  Temp:    86600 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au