[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 02 March 25 issued 2330 UT on 02 Mar 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Mon Mar 3 10:30:54 AEDT 2025

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 MARCH 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 03 MARCH - 05 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Mar:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Mar: 140/94

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Mar             04 Mar             05 Mar
Activity     R0, chance R1      R0, chance R1      R0, chance R1
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             140/94             140/94

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 02-Mar was at the R0 level, 
with several low level C-class flares observed. There are currently 
seven numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR4009 
(N11W05, beta) is the largest region on the disk and has exhibited 
spot development over the UT day. AR4007 (S12W29, beta) and AR4011 
(S19E48, beta) have shown spot growth. Newly numbered AR4012 
(S13E65, beta) has shown rapid spot growth since appearing on 
the disk. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. 
Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level over 03-05 Mar, 
with a chance of R1. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. 
A northwest-directed CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph 
imagery from 02/1024UT. This CME is considered a farside event 
and not geoeffective. The solar wind speed on UT day 02-Mar decreased, 
ranging from 460 to 600 km/s and is currently near 475 km/s. 
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -2 
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to decline over 02-Mar due 
to waning coronal hole high speed wind stream effects. A mild 
increase in the solar wind is possible over 03-04 Mar due to 
a possible glancing arrival of a CME first observed on 01-Mar.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Mar: G0

Estimated Indices 02 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21212101
      Cocos Island         1   11-11000
      Darwin               4   21212102
      Townsville           5   21212112
      Learmonth            4   22212101
      Alice Springs        4   21212102
      Gingin               4   21212101
      Canberra             2   11112001
      Kennaook Cape Grim   3   12211001
      Hobart               3   12211001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     2   11221000
      Casey               10   34331012
      Mawson              11   24432111

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            32   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             17   2444 3233     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Mar     8    G0
04 Mar    12    G0, chance of G1
05 Mar    10    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
and Antarctic regions on UT day 02-Mar. G0 geomagnetic conditions 
are expected over 03-05 Mar, with a chance of G1 on 04-Mar due 
to the glancing arrival of a CME first observed on 01-Mar.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
04 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
05 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were normal to fair 
on UT day 02-Mar. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 
03-05 Mar. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
02 Mar   103

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      127
Mar      117
Apr      114

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Mar   100    Near predicted monthly values
04 Mar   110    Near predicted monthly values
05 Mar   110    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 02-Mar in 
the Australian region were near predicted monthly values to 20% 
depressed. Spread F was observed at Hobart. MUFs are expected 
to be near predicted monthly values over 03-05 Mar. Shortwave 
fadeouts are possible.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Mar
Speed: 679 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:   231000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au