[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 01 March 25 issued 2330 UT on 01 Mar 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Mar 2 10:30:55 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 MARCH 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 02 MARCH - 04 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Mar: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Mar: 145/99
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Mar 03 Mar 04 Mar
Activity R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 01-Mar was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares observed. There are currently six
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and three
unnumbered regions. AR4007 (S12W14, beta-gamma) is the most magnetically
complex region on the disk and has exhibited spot growth over
the UT day. AR4009 (N11E10, beta) has shown mild spot growth.
Three unnumbered regions are visible near N10E32 (alpha), S04E78
(alpha) and S12E74 (alpha). The unnumbered region in the northeast
quadrant has shown mild spot growth, whilst the other unnumbered
regions are stable. All other sunspot regions are either stable
or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level
over 02-04 Mar, with a chance of R1. A filament eruption was
observed, visible in H-alpha imagery from 01/1628UT centred near
S25E15. A subsequent associated CME was observed, visible in
STEREO-A coronagraph imagery from 01/1853UT. Modelling indicates
this CME contains a geoeffective component, with a glancing arrival
possible on 04-Mar at 1900UT +/- 12 hours. No other Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 01-Mar
decreased, ranging from 605 to 720 km/s and is currently near
605 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+6 to -6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to decline over
02-04 Mar due to waning coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 01 Mar : A K
Australian Region 11 22343122
Cocos Island 8 22233121
Darwin 12 32343122
Townsville 13 33343122
Learmonth 18 32354233
Alice Springs 11 22343122
Gingin 13 22343233
Canberra 10 23333122
Kennaook Cape Grim 12 23343222
Hobart 11 23333222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Mar :
Macquarie Island 32 24665222
Casey 24 45543232
Mawson 50 34554376
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Mar :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Learmonth 43 (Unsettled)
Alice Springs 45 (Unsettled)
Gingin 133 (Severe storm)
Canberra 169 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 19
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 30 4344 5543
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Mar 16 G0, chance of G1
03 Mar 8 G0
04 Mar 12 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 12 was issued on 28 February
and is current for 28 Feb to 2 Mar. G0 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Australian region on UT day 01-Mar, with
an isolated period of G1 observed at Learmonth. Mostly G1-G2
geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Antarctic region,
with an isolated period of G3 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 02-04 Mar, with a chance of G1 on
02-Mar due to ongoing coronal hole high speed wind stream effects,
and a chance of G1 on 04-Mar due to a possible glancing arrival
from a CME first observed on 01-Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Mar Fair-normal Fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
03 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were normal to fair
on UT day 01-Mar. Normal to fair HF conditions are expected over
02-04 Mar. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Mar 103
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 127
Mar 117
Apr 114
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Mar 80 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
20%
03 Mar 110 Near predicted monthly values
04 Mar 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 26 was issued on
28 February and is current for 28 Feb to 2 Mar. ASWFC HF Communications
Warning 27 was issued on 28 February and is current for 1-2 Mar.
Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 01-Mar in the Australian
region were generally depressed by 15-25%. Spread F was observed
at Hobart. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to 15-20% depressed on 02-Mar, improving to near predicted monthly
values over 03-04 Mar. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Feb
Speed: 669 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 231000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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