[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 28 February 25 issued 2330 UT on 28 Feb 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Mar 1 10:30:56 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 FEBRUARY 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 MARCH - 03 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** RED **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Feb: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Feb: 155/109
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Mar 02 Mar 03 Mar
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 155/109 155/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 28-Feb was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares observed. There are currently seven
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR4006 (N17W06,
beta-gamma) is the most magnetically complex region on the disk
and has decayed over the UT day. AR4009 (N11E23, beta) has exhibited
rapid spot growth since appearing on the disk. AR4002 (N13W58,
beta), AR4004 (S14W06, alpha) and AR4010 (N26E36, beta) have
shown spot growth. AR4007 (S12W07, beta) has shown spot development.
All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar
activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 01-03 Mar. No
Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. A broad west-directed
CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from
28/1712UT. This CME is considered a farside event and not geoeffective.
The solar wind speed on UT day 28-Feb increased, ranging from
550 to 765 km/s and is currently near 715 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 13 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +12 to -10 nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to decline over 01-03 Mar due to waning coronal hole
high speed wind stream effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Feb: G0
Estimated Indices 28 Feb : A K
Australian Region 18 33334433
Cocos Island 16 33334431
Darwin 18 33334433
Townsville 18 33334433
Learmonth 24 33345533
Alice Springs 18 33334433
Gingin 25 43345443
Canberra 18 33334433
Kennaook Cape Grim 19 33434433
Hobart 21 33444433
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Feb :
Macquarie Island 48 44666543
Casey 39 56555333
Mawson 53 56545663
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Learmonth 20 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Gingin 64 (Active)
Canberra 144 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 26
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 24
Planetary 29 4435 4534
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Mar 25 G1, chance of G2
02 Mar 16 G0, chance of G1
03 Mar 8 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 12 was issued on 28 February
and is current for 28 Feb to 2 Mar. G0 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Australian region on UT day 28-Feb, with
G1 periods observed at Learmonth and Gingin. G2 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region. G1 geomagnetic conditions
are expected on 01-Mar, with a chance of G2 due to ongoing coronal
hole high speed wind stream effects. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 02-03 Mar, with a chance of G1 on 02-Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Mar Fair Fair Fair-poor
02 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
03 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were normal to fair
on UT day 28-Feb. Fair to poor conditions are expected on 01-Mar,
tending to normal to fair over 02-03 Mar. Shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Feb 103
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 124
Feb 118
Mar 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Mar 60 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
02 Mar 80 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
03 Mar 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 26 was issued on
28 February and is current for 28 Feb to 2 Mar. ASWFC HF Communications
Warning 27 was issued on 28 February and is current for 1-2 Mar.
Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 28-Feb in the Australian
region were generally near predicted monthly values, though MUFs
are 25-30% depressed after local dawn. Spread F was observed
at Hobart. MUFs are expected to be 20-30% depressed on UT day
01-Mar. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
over 02-03 Mar, with 10-15% depressions possible on 02-Mar. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Feb
Speed: 557 km/sec Density: 16.1 p/cc Temp: 420000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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