[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 16 March 25 issued 2331 UT on 16 Mar 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Mar 17 10:31:23 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 MARCH 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 17 MARCH - 19 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Mar: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Mar: 186/139
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Mar 18 Mar 19 Mar
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 180/133 185/138
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 16-Mar was R0, with no significant
solar flares. There are currently thirteen numbered sunspots
on the solar disk. Most regions have a simple magnetic configuration,
although a number of them are growing. Despite several regions
showing growth, almost all regions are relatively small. Regions
showing the most growth are AR4019 (N07W46, beta), AR4021 (S06W05,
beta), AR4028 (S18E24, beta) and AR4031 (N17E07, beta), with
AR4028 having shown consistent growth for a number of days now.
Despite the large number of spots, solar activity is expected
to be R0-R1 over 17-19 Mar.
A small filament on the northeast erupted from 1800 UT and appears
to be associated with a small CME, however analysis is pending whether
this will have an Earth directed component. No other noteworthy CMEs were
observed today.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 16-Mar.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are mostly expected over
17-19 Mar.
The solar wind environment was mostly undisturbed
on UT day 16-Mar. The peak total interplanetary field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 5 nT and the north-south IMF component range was
+5 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed was on a declining trend, suggesting
Earth has left the influence of the recent coronal hole, and
ranged from 500 to 400 km/s. The solar wind environment is expected
to be near background levels over 17-19 Mar, although a brief
increase in speed is possible at the beginning of the period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Mar: G0
Estimated Indices 16 Mar : A K
Australian Region 7 21233022
Cocos Island 5 11222121
Darwin 5 21132012
Townsville 7 12233022
Learmonth 9 22233023
Alice Springs 7 22133022
Gingin 9 21233033
Canberra 7 11233022
Kennaook Cape Grim 9 21243122
Hobart 8 22233122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Mar :
Macquarie Island 19 21265111
Casey 14 34333223
Mawson 29 33323266
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 20 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 17 3334 4432
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Mar 10 G0
18 Mar 7 G0
19 Mar 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 16-Mar. G0-G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 17-19 Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Mar Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Mar Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
18 Mar Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
19 Mar Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 16-Mar were
generally normal with some depressions near the equator in the
first half of the day. HF radio propagation conditions are generally
expected to be good. Some mild depressions are possible in high
latitudes at local night hours, and scintillation may affect
the equatorial region as the March equinox approaches.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Mar 141
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 127
Mar 117
Apr 114
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Mar 130 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
18 Mar 120 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
19 Mar 115 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 16-Mar were
mostly near predicted values to 15% enhanced. Sporadic-E was
observed in Brisbane during local night and dawn hours. Scintillation
was observed from 1204 to 1320 UT in Darwin and Weipa with a
maximum S4 of 1.0. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values over 17-19 Mar. Due to the large number of sunspots currently
on the disk, MUFs are likely to be enhanced up to 20% over this
period, however due to the recent coronal hole there may also
be pockets of brief 10-15% depressions on 17-Mar.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Mar
Speed: 527 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 117000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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