[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 19 June 25 issued 2330 UT on 19 Jun 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Jun 20 09:30:52 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 JUNE 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 20 JUNE - 22 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jun: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jun: 136/90
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Jun 21 Jun 22 Jun
Activity R1 R1 R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 19-Jun was R0. Solar region
AR4114 (N17W37, beta-gamma) is in decay with intermediate and
leader spots appearing now more as penumbra with a reduction
in umbral area, though the region retains its large trailer spot.
Region AR4114 produced C flare activity, the largest a C7.9 at
19/0917UT. Adjacent solar region AR4115 (N20W23, beta) has been
largely stable, with slight decay in small spots above the leader
spot. This region has a simple open spot configuration. Solar
region AR4117 (S14E54, beta) showed slight growth in its leader
spot and slight decay in its southern trailer spot. Region AR4117
also produced C flare activity with the largest a C5.9 at 19/0651UT.
This region currently has a more open spot configuration. New
smaller solar region AR4118 (S14E55, beta) just to the east of
AR4117 showed slight growth. Other sunspot groups are small.
There are currently six numbered sunspot groups on the visible
solar disk. All other sunspots are either stable or in decay.
A 15 degree long filament at N30E35 was active at around 19/0600UT
but has not lifted off the disk. Small localised plasma motion
with possible minor on disk dimming was observed at 19/2148UT
near small region AR4116 (S13W41, alpha), possibly associated
with a C4 flare at 19/2134UT. Solar activity is expected to be
R1 due to AR4114 and AR4117. No significant Earth directed CMEs
have been observed. In LASCO C2 a southwest CME was observed
from 19/0236UT. A northwest CME was observed from 19/1112UT and
a southeast CME was observed from 19/1600UT. None of these CMEs
could be paired with on disk activity and are presumed to be
far side events. Subsequent coronagraph imagery will be checked
for any CME associated with the minor on disk plasma motion observed
near AR4116, but it is not expected to be significant. S0 solar
radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 19-Jun. S0
solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 20-22 Jun.
The solar wind environment on UT day 19-Jun was moderately elevated
with a general overall declining trend. The solar wind speed
ranged from 570 to 450 km/s, and is currently at 470 km/s. The
peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and
the north-south IMF component range was +6 to -7 nT. A brief
period of mildly southward IMF conditions was observed 19/1750-1910UT,
along with a slight increase in wind speed. The solar wind has
been recently moderately elevated due to a large coronal hole
in the southern solar hemisphere, that has now rotated into the
southwest solar quadrant. An isolated equatorial coronal hole
is visible in the eastern solar hemisphere. A weak glancing blow
CME may possibly arrive early on 20-Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 19 Jun : A K
Australian Region 6 22211032
Cocos Island 5 21211032
Darwin 7 22212132
Townsville 6 22211132
Learmonth 7 32202132
Alice Springs 6 22101033
Gingin 9 32201143
Canberra 4 21100032
Kennaook Cape Grim 5 21110033
Hobart 4 21110032
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Jun :
Macquarie Island 3 11111022
Casey 16 34311253
Mawson 25 53321264
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 11 3223 3224
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Jun 18 G0, chance G1
21 Jun 10 G0
22 Jun 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 19-Jun. G0-G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. G0, chance G1 geomagnetic conditions
are expected on 20 Jun, due to effects from an ongoing coronal
hole wind stream with the possibility of weak glancing blow CME
arrival. G0 conditions are expected 21-22 Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jun Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jun Normal Fair-normal Fair
21 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 19-Jun were
fair to normal, with fair conditions ar high latitudes. HF radio
propagation conditions are expected to be fair to normal at middle
to high latitudes for 20-Jun with improved HF conditions expected
over 21-22 Jun.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Jun 87
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 10-20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
Frequent spread F and sporadic E.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 94
Jun 109
Jul 107
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Jun 90 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
21 Jun 100 Near predicted monthly values
22 Jun 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on 19-Jun were near predicted monthly values during the
local day and depressed 10-30% during local night hours. Spread
F was observed at Canberra and Hobart during local night hours.
Degraded HF conditions were observed at times in the Antarctic
region. MUFs are expected to be mildly depressed by 15% to near
predicted values for 20-Jun and near predicted monthly values
on 21-22 Jun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jun
Speed: 491 km/sec Density: 9.4 p/cc Temp: 262000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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