[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 20 June 25 issued 2331 UT on 20 Jun 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Jun 21 09:31:24 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 JUNE 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 21 JUNE - 23 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jun: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X1.9 19/2350UT probable all West Pacific
M1.0 1740UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jun: 130/84
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Jun 22 Jun 23 Jun
Activity R0-R1, chance R3 R0-R1, chance R3 R0-R1, chance R3
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 20-Jun was R3, with an isolated
X1 solar flare at 19/2352 UT from AR4114 (N16W53, beta). AR4117
(S14E40, beta) also produced an M1 flare. There are currently
six numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk, however all regions
are currently stable and have shown little change over the past
day. Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1 over 21-23 Jun, however
a chance for isolated R3 events may still be possible, although
unlikely.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed on UT day 20-Jun.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 20-Jun.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 21-23 Jun.
The solar wind environment on UT day 20-Jun was mostly steady.
The solar wind speed ranged from 518 to 631 km/s, slightly elevated
due to coronal hole activity but beginning to decline. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the
north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +7 to -6 nT. The solar
wind environment is expected to remain at similar levels over
21-23 Jun, possibly becoming slightly more elevated at the end
of the period due to further coronal hole activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 20 Jun : A K
Australian Region 6 12322220
Cocos Island 4 02221210
Darwin 8 12322321
Townsville 7 12322320
Learmonth 6 12222320
Alice Springs 6 12322220
Gingin 6 12222320
Canberra 6 12322220
Kennaook Cape Grim 7 12323220
Hobart 6 12322220
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Jun :
Macquarie Island 9 11433210
Casey 12 33423221
Mawson 21 45333342
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12 ---- ----
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Jun 10 G0
22 Jun 8 G0
23 Jun 12 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed on UT day 20-Jun
in the Australian region. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions are
expected over 21-23 Jun, as the CME from 18-Jun is no longer
expected to arrive.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
22 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
23 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 20-Jun were
mixed. Degraded conditions were observed in the northern hemisphere,
as well as intermittently in the southern hemisphere. HF radio
propagation conditions are expected to be similar, with mildly
degraded conditions expected over 21-23 Jun.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Jun 88
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 94
Jun 109
Jul 107
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Jun 85 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
22 Jun 85 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
23 Jun 85 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 20-Jun were near predicted values to 25% depressed.
Conditions were especially degraded in the northern Australian
region near local dawn hours, where sporadic-E was common. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted values to 20% depressed during
local night and dawn hours over 21-23 Jun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jun
Speed: 504 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 189000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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