[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 16 June 25 issued 2330 UT on 16 Jun 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Jun 17 09:30:58 AEST 2025


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 JUNE 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 17 JUNE - 19 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jun:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.1    0000UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M1.8    0423UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M6.4    0938UT  probable   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.4    1139UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.1    1455UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jun: 148/102


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Jun             18 Jun             19 Jun
Activity     R1, chance R2-R3   R1, chance R2-R3   R1, chance R2-R3
Fadeouts     Probable           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            155/109            150/105

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 16-Jun was R2, with a total 
of five solar flares. The largest flare observed was M6 originating 
from AR4114 (N17E00, beta-gamma-delta) at 0940 UT. The rest were 
M1 flares, two from AR4114 and two from the western solar limb. 
There are a total of six numbered sunspot regions on the solar 
disk. AR4114 dominates as the largest and most complex, and continues 
to grow, although has only had small changes in the past day. 
AR4115 (N21E14, beta-gamma) has also shown some small growth 
in the past day, and all other regions are stable. Solar activity 
is expected to be R1, chance R2-R3 over 17-19 Jun due to AR4114.
 
Several CMEs were observed on ut day 16-Jun, however none were 
considered to be geoeffective. 

S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 16-Jun. 
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 17-19 Jun. 

The solar wind environment on UT day 16-Jun was steady. The solar 
wind speed ranged between 390 and 566 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
 field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT and the north-south IMF component range
 (Bz) was +8 to -8 nT. There is a large coronal hole in the southern solar 
hemisphere that may intermittently increase the solar wind speed 
in the coming days, although this feature may be too high a latitude 
for sustained connection with Earth. On 18-Jun a CME first observed 
on 15-Jun may briefly graze the Earth and disturb the solar wind.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jun: G0

Estimated Indices 16 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22312111
      Cocos Island         4   12211111
      Darwin               7   23321121
      Townsville           7   23321112
      Learmonth            8   23322121
      Alice Springs        6   23311111
      Gingin               7   22322121
      Canberra             5   12312111
      Kennaook Cape Grim   5   12312111
      Hobart               5   12312111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     6   11323101
      Casey               11   33322232
      Mawson              22   23552251

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart              12   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              0   ---- ----     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Jun    14    G0-G1
18 Jun    12    G0-G1
19 Jun    10    G0, slight chance G1

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 16-Jun. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Antarctic region. Isolated periods of G1 are possible 
over 17-18 Jun due to brief connection to the southern coronal 
hole. On 18-Jun there may be a brief disturbance as a CME from 
15-Jun grazes the Earth.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
18 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
19 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 16-Jun were 
degraded, especially at high latitudes and during local night 
hours. Conditions are expected to be similar over 17-19 Jun, 
with normal to fair daytime conditions and degraded nighttime 
conditions.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Jun    76

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      94
Jun      109
Jul      107

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Jun    90    Near predicted monthly values to 10-20% depressed
18 Jun    85    Near predicted monthly values to 10-20% depressed
19 Jun    85    Near predicted monthly values to 15-20% depressed

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 65 was issued on 
15 June and is current for 15-17 Jun. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day were near predicted 
values to 30% depressed during local night hours. Conditions 
were heavily degraded in Townsville, Cocos Islands and Brisbane. 
MUFs may continue to be sporadically depressed by 10-20% during 
local night hours over the next few days due to possible coronal 
hole activity, although more likely will be near predicted values.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.6E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.6

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jun
Speed: 492 km/sec  Density:    9.0 p/cc  Temp:   204000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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