[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 16 June 25 issued 2330 UT on 16 Jun 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Tue Jun 17 09:30:58 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 JUNE 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 17 JUNE - 19 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jun: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 0000UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.8 0423UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M6.4 0938UT probable lower Mid East/Indian
M1.4 1139UT possible lower European
M1.1 1455UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jun: 148/102
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Jun 18 Jun 19 Jun
Activity R1, chance R2-R3 R1, chance R2-R3 R1, chance R2-R3
Fadeouts Probable Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 155/109 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 16-Jun was R2, with a total
of five solar flares. The largest flare observed was M6 originating
from AR4114 (N17E00, beta-gamma-delta) at 0940 UT. The rest were
M1 flares, two from AR4114 and two from the western solar limb.
There are a total of six numbered sunspot regions on the solar
disk. AR4114 dominates as the largest and most complex, and continues
to grow, although has only had small changes in the past day.
AR4115 (N21E14, beta-gamma) has also shown some small growth
in the past day, and all other regions are stable. Solar activity
is expected to be R1, chance R2-R3 over 17-19 Jun due to AR4114.
Several CMEs were observed on ut day 16-Jun, however none were
considered to be geoeffective.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 16-Jun.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 17-19 Jun.
The solar wind environment on UT day 16-Jun was steady. The solar
wind speed ranged between 390 and 566 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT and the north-south IMF component range
(Bz) was +8 to -8 nT. There is a large coronal hole in the southern solar
hemisphere that may intermittently increase the solar wind speed
in the coming days, although this feature may be too high a latitude
for sustained connection with Earth. On 18-Jun a CME first observed
on 15-Jun may briefly graze the Earth and disturb the solar wind.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 16 Jun : A K
Australian Region 6 22312111
Cocos Island 4 12211111
Darwin 7 23321121
Townsville 7 23321112
Learmonth 8 23322121
Alice Springs 6 23311111
Gingin 7 22322121
Canberra 5 12312111
Kennaook Cape Grim 5 12312111
Hobart 5 12312111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Jun :
Macquarie Island 6 11323101
Casey 11 33322232
Mawson 22 23552251
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 12 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 ---- ----
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Jun 14 G0-G1
18 Jun 12 G0-G1
19 Jun 10 G0, slight chance G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 16-Jun. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. Isolated periods of G1 are possible
over 17-18 Jun due to brief connection to the southern coronal
hole. On 18-Jun there may be a brief disturbance as a CME from
15-Jun grazes the Earth.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
18 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
19 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 16-Jun were
degraded, especially at high latitudes and during local night
hours. Conditions are expected to be similar over 17-19 Jun,
with normal to fair daytime conditions and degraded nighttime
conditions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Jun 76
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 94
Jun 109
Jul 107
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Jun 90 Near predicted monthly values to 10-20% depressed
18 Jun 85 Near predicted monthly values to 10-20% depressed
19 Jun 85 Near predicted monthly values to 15-20% depressed
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 65 was issued on
15 June and is current for 15-17 Jun. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day were near predicted
values to 30% depressed during local night hours. Conditions
were heavily degraded in Townsville, Cocos Islands and Brisbane.
MUFs may continue to be sporadically depressed by 10-20% during
local night hours over the next few days due to possible coronal
hole activity, although more likely will be near predicted values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jun
Speed: 492 km/sec Density: 9.0 p/cc Temp: 204000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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