[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 15 June 25 issued 2349 UT on 15 Jun 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Jun 16 09:49:47 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 JUNE 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 16 JUNE - 18 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jun: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M6.8 14/2301UT probable lower West Pacific
M2.2 0756UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.9 1047UT possible lower European
M8.4 1807UT probable lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jun: 161/115
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Jun 17 Jun 18 Jun
Activity R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 145/99 140/94
COMMENT: On UT day 15-Jun solar activity was R2 due to an M8.4
flare from solar region AR4114 (N18E17, beta-gamma-delta). The
M8.4 flare had an associated solar radio burst and a solar radio
sweep that suggest a solar proton flux enhancement and CME is
possibly associated with this flare. Localised dimming was observed
in SDO193 imagery to the north of the flare location. This region
has grown in size and magnetic complexity and is now the largest
region on the visible solar disk. Solar region AR4105 (S15W79,
beta) produced the R1 M2.2 and M1.9 flare events. This region
is rotating over the southwest solar limb. Solar region AR4116
(S12E23, beta) continues to develop and AR4110 (N05W64, beta)
has been mostly stable. Other regions are relative minor. There
are currently eight numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk.
All other regions are either stable or in decay. A small 10 degree
long filament located at N25E20 erupted during the interval 15/0320-0343UT
visible in US GONG H-alpha imagery. At the time of eruption in
H-alpha there is emission to the southwest suggesting that some
of this small filament fell back onto the chromosphere. Later
small localised dimming is visible in GOES SUVI at 15/0500UT.
A very small solar filament located at S42W49 lifted off from
15/0810UT but no on disk plasma motion is evident at this location
and this event is considered insignificant. Yesterday's M6.8
flare from solar region AR4105 near the southwest solar limb
did not appear to have an associated CME. Solar activity is expected
to be R1, chance R2 over 16-18 Jun, due to currently developing
AR4114 and AR4105 may produce a flare from just behind the southwest
solar limb. A north directed CME is visible in LASCO C2 imagery
from 15/1836UT which has been paired with the M8.4 flare at 15/1807UT.
The direction of this CME implies limited effectiveness. Event
modelling shows an Earth miss for the M8.4/CME event. A very
narrow north directed out of the ecliptic plane CME was observed
from 15/0436UT, which has been paired with the small filament
eruption at N25E30 and is not considered significant. The origin
of a southwest directed CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery
from 15/0500UT is uncertain as whilst it is visible in LASCO
it does not seem to appear or match in STEREO-A, possibly suggesting
a far side event. Further analysis will be conducted as it may
be possibly associated with either a slow rise C7.6 flare from
AR4114 at 15/0326UT or a slow rise flare from AR4105 at 15/0434UT.
A west directed CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery from 15/0812UT
has been been paired with the M2.2 flare from AR4105 at 15/0756UT.
Preliminary analysis of these CME events suggest that no significant
CME is currently directed at the Earth. S0 solar radiation storm
conditions were observed on UT day 15-Jun. The flare parameters
for the M8 flare suggest an S1-Minor event is possible in coming
hours. S0, chance S1 solar radiation storm conditions are expected
over 16-18 Jun. A broad coronal hole currently spans across the
southern solar hemisphere. The solar wind speed on 15-Jun was
moderately elevated with a declining trend due to a coronal hole
wind stream from the coronal hole in the southern solar hemisphere.
The solar wind speed ranged from 570 to 450 km/s and is currently
at 450 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component range was +7 to
-6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain enhanced with
a continuing declining trend on 16-Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 15 Jun : A K
Australian Region 7 11222232
Cocos Island 4 11221121
Darwin 8 22222232
Townsville 8 21232232
Learmonth 8 12322232
Alice Springs 6 11222222
Gingin 8 12322232
Canberra 7 11232222
Kennaook Cape Grim 8 11232232
Hobart 8 11232232
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Jun :
Macquarie Island 11 11153311
Casey 10 23321233
Mawson 24 34422264
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 15 (Quiet)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Hobart 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 24
Planetary 0 ---- ----
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Jun 16 G0, chance G1
17 Jun 14 G0
18 Jun 12 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 15-Jun. G0-G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. Geomagnetic G1 periods are possible
on 16-Jun due to a coronal hole wind stream, then G0 conditions
are expected.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
17 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communications were fair to poor for middle
to high latitudes on 15-Jun. Improved conditions expected for
16-18 Jun. Isolated minor HF fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Jun 64
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 35%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 94
Jun 109
Jul 107
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Jun 90 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
17 Jun 110 Near predicted monthly values
18 Jun 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 62 was issued
on 13 June and is current for 13-16 Jun. ASWFC SWF HF Communications
Warning 65 was issued on 15 June and is current for 15-17 Jun.
Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region on
UT day 16-Jun were generally 30-40% depressed in the Australian
region. Southern region MUFs were depressed by 35% throughout
the day. Northern region MUFs were near predicted monthly values
during the local day becoming depressed by up to 40% during the
local night. Spread F was generally observed during local night
hours. For 16-Jun MUFs in the Australian region are generally
expected to be initially depressed 10-20% for southern Australian
region and near predicted monthly values for the northern Australian
region.\. Isolated brief minor fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jun
Speed: 491 km/sec Density: 13.8 p/cc Temp: 287000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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