[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 14 June 25 issued 2334 UT on 14 Jun 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Jun 15 09:34:35 AEST 2025


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 JUNE 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 15 JUNE - 17 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jun:  R2

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.0    1804UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M6.8    2301UT  probable   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jun: 151/106


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Jun             16 Jun             17 Jun
Activity     R1,chance R2       R1,chance R2       R1,chance R2
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            150/105            145/99

COMMENT: On UT day 14-Jun solar activity was R2. Solar region 
AR4105 (S15W65, beta-gamma) produced both an M6.8 flare and an 
M1 flare. This region is approaching the southwest solar limb 
and also produced several C class flares, including a C2.8 flare 
at 14/0307UT associated with plasma ejecta. This region has shown 
growth in its leader spots and slight decay in its trailer spots, 
though assessment is difficult due to western limb proximity. 
Solar region AR4114 (N18E30, beta-gamma) is growing, and is becoming 
the more significant of the on disk regions. Solar region AR4110 
(N05W50, beta) has shown growth in its intermediate spots. Other 
regions are smaller, more notable of these is new region AR4116 
(S12E32, beta) an open bipolar group that is currently growing. 
There are currently eight numbered sunspot regions on the solar 
disk. All other regions are either stable or in decay. A small 
5 degree long solar filament located at N35W32 erupted at 14/0432-0656UT. 
Solar activity is expected to be R1, chance R2 over 15-17 Jun, 
due to departing AR4105 and currently developing AR4114. No Earth 
directed CMEs have been observed up to 14/2000UT. Subsequent 
space based coronagraph images will be checked for any CME associated 
with the M6.8 flare. A slow southwest CME was associated with 
a C2.8 flare/plasma ejecta from solar region AR4105 and has been 
modelled as an Earth miss, passing ahead of the Earth. No CME 
was associated with the small filament eruption. A very narrow 
north directed CME was observed from 14/1612UT is not considered 
significant. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed 
on UT day 14-Jun. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected 
over 15-17 Jun. A broad coronal hole currently spans across the 
southern solar hemisphere. The solar wind speed on 14-Jun gradually 
increased due to a coronal hole wind stream from the coronal 
hole in the southern solar hemisphere. The solar wind speed ranged 
from 574 to 418 km/s and is currently at 550 km/s. The peak total 
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 17 nT and the north-south 
IMF component range was +12 to -14 nT. Bz fluctuated southward 
early in the UT day. The IMF Bt slowly declined in magnitude 
over the UT day and is currently at 7nT. The solar wind speed 
is expected to remain enhanced on 15-16 Jun.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jun: G0

Estimated Indices 14 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region      13   33332233
      Cocos Island        11   33332222
      Darwin              14   43332233
      Townsville          13   3-333233
      Learmonth           15   33432333
      Alice Springs       12   33332232
      Gingin              16   43432233
      Canberra            12   33332232
      Kennaook Cape Grim  13   33332233
      Hobart              13   33332233    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Jun :
      Macquarie Island    15   34244222
      Casey               15   34433132
      Mawson              44   65534256

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          36   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            10   (Quiet)
      Hobart              44   (Unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        19
           Planetary             24                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        66
           Planetary              0   ---- ----     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Jun    19    G0-G1
16 Jun    16    G0, chance G1
17 Jun     9    G0

COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 45 was issued on 12 June and 
is current for 13-15 Jun. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Australian region on UT day 14-Jun. G0-G2 geomagnetic 
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. G1 planetary 
geomagnetic conditions were observed early in the UT day on 14-Jun. 
Geomagnetic G1 periods are possible over 15-16 Jun due to a coronal 
hole wind stream.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jun      Normal         Poor-fair      Poor           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Jun      Normal         Fair-normal    Poor-normal
16 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
17 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF radio communication on UT day 14-Jun were poor for 
middle to high latitudes on 14-Jun. HF conditions at middle to 
high latitudes are expected to be fair to poor on 15-Jun with 
improved conditions expected for 16-17 Jun. Isolated minor HF 
fadeouts are possible.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Jun    65

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15-30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30-35%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 50% over the UT day.
      Strong spread F and sporadic E.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      94
Jun      109
Jul      107

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Jun    80    Depressed 15 to 25%/near predicted monthly values
16 Jun   110    Near predicted monthly values
17 Jun   110    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 62 was issued 
on 13 June and is current for 13-16 Jun. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 14-Jun were 30-40% 
depressed in the southern Australian region. Spread F was observed 
at Hobart and Canberra during local night hours. Northern Australian 
MUFs remained mostly near predicted monthly vales during the 
local day, becoming 15-30% depressed at times during local night 
hours. Antarctic conditions were again poor. For 15-Jun MUFs 
in the Australian region are generally expected to be initially 
depressed 15-25%, gradually recovering during the day as recent 
geomagnetic activity has now declined. A brief fadeouts was observed 
at 14/2300UT in association with the M6.8 flare impacting lower 
HF frequencies on the east coast of Australia. Isolated brief 
minor fadeouts are possible.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B9.8

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jun
Speed: 421 km/sec  Density:   11.6 p/cc  Temp:    74000 K  Bz: -10 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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