[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 14 June 25 issued 2334 UT on 14 Jun 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Jun 15 09:34:35 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 JUNE 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 15 JUNE - 17 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jun: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 1804UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M6.8 2301UT probable lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jun: 151/106
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jun 16 Jun 17 Jun
Activity R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 150/105 145/99
COMMENT: On UT day 14-Jun solar activity was R2. Solar region
AR4105 (S15W65, beta-gamma) produced both an M6.8 flare and an
M1 flare. This region is approaching the southwest solar limb
and also produced several C class flares, including a C2.8 flare
at 14/0307UT associated with plasma ejecta. This region has shown
growth in its leader spots and slight decay in its trailer spots,
though assessment is difficult due to western limb proximity.
Solar region AR4114 (N18E30, beta-gamma) is growing, and is becoming
the more significant of the on disk regions. Solar region AR4110
(N05W50, beta) has shown growth in its intermediate spots. Other
regions are smaller, more notable of these is new region AR4116
(S12E32, beta) an open bipolar group that is currently growing.
There are currently eight numbered sunspot regions on the solar
disk. All other regions are either stable or in decay. A small
5 degree long solar filament located at N35W32 erupted at 14/0432-0656UT.
Solar activity is expected to be R1, chance R2 over 15-17 Jun,
due to departing AR4105 and currently developing AR4114. No Earth
directed CMEs have been observed up to 14/2000UT. Subsequent
space based coronagraph images will be checked for any CME associated
with the M6.8 flare. A slow southwest CME was associated with
a C2.8 flare/plasma ejecta from solar region AR4105 and has been
modelled as an Earth miss, passing ahead of the Earth. No CME
was associated with the small filament eruption. A very narrow
north directed CME was observed from 14/1612UT is not considered
significant. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed
on UT day 14-Jun. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected
over 15-17 Jun. A broad coronal hole currently spans across the
southern solar hemisphere. The solar wind speed on 14-Jun gradually
increased due to a coronal hole wind stream from the coronal
hole in the southern solar hemisphere. The solar wind speed ranged
from 574 to 418 km/s and is currently at 550 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 17 nT and the north-south
IMF component range was +12 to -14 nT. Bz fluctuated southward
early in the UT day. The IMF Bt slowly declined in magnitude
over the UT day and is currently at 7nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to remain enhanced on 15-16 Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 14 Jun : A K
Australian Region 13 33332233
Cocos Island 11 33332222
Darwin 14 43332233
Townsville 13 3-333233
Learmonth 15 33432333
Alice Springs 12 33332232
Gingin 16 43432233
Canberra 12 33332232
Kennaook Cape Grim 13 33332233
Hobart 13 33332233
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Jun :
Macquarie Island 15 34244222
Casey 15 34433132
Mawson 44 65534256
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 10 (Quiet)
Hobart 44 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 24
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 66
Planetary 0 ---- ----
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jun 19 G0-G1
16 Jun 16 G0, chance G1
17 Jun 9 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 45 was issued on 12 June and
is current for 13-15 Jun. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 14-Jun. G0-G2 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. G1 planetary
geomagnetic conditions were observed early in the UT day on 14-Jun.
Geomagnetic G1 periods are possible over 15-16 Jun due to a coronal
hole wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jun Normal Poor-fair Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jun Normal Fair-normal Poor-normal
16 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication on UT day 14-Jun were poor for
middle to high latitudes on 14-Jun. HF conditions at middle to
high latitudes are expected to be fair to poor on 15-Jun with
improved conditions expected for 16-17 Jun. Isolated minor HF
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Jun 65
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15-30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30-35%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 50% over the UT day.
Strong spread F and sporadic E.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 94
Jun 109
Jul 107
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jun 80 Depressed 15 to 25%/near predicted monthly values
16 Jun 110 Near predicted monthly values
17 Jun 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 62 was issued
on 13 June and is current for 13-16 Jun. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 14-Jun were 30-40%
depressed in the southern Australian region. Spread F was observed
at Hobart and Canberra during local night hours. Northern Australian
MUFs remained mostly near predicted monthly vales during the
local day, becoming 15-30% depressed at times during local night
hours. Antarctic conditions were again poor. For 15-Jun MUFs
in the Australian region are generally expected to be initially
depressed 15-25%, gradually recovering during the day as recent
geomagnetic activity has now declined. A brief fadeouts was observed
at 14/2300UT in association with the M6.8 flare impacting lower
HF frequencies on the east coast of Australia. Isolated brief
minor fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jun
Speed: 421 km/sec Density: 11.6 p/cc Temp: 74000 K Bz: -10 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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