[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 13 June 25 issued 2330 UT on 13 Jun 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sat Jun 14 09:30:48 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 JUNE 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 14 JUNE - 16 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jun: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 2111UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jun: 143/97
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jun 15 Jun 16 Jun
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 135/89 130/84
COMMENT: On UT day 13-Jun solar activity was R1, with an isolated
M1 class flare from solar region AR4105 (S16W54, beta-gamma).
Solar region AR4114 (N18E42, beta) and AR4105 both produced C
class flares. No on disk region is particularly large or complex.
Regions AR4110 (N04W41, beta) and AR4114 are slightly growing.
The trailers spots of AR4105 have slightly declined with redistribution
evident in the leader spots of this region. There are currently
eight numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. All other regions
are either stable or in decay. A small section of solar filament
located at N30E30 erupted at 13/1600UT. Solar activity is expected
to be R0-R1 over 14-16 Jun. No Earth directed CMEs have been
observed. CME activity was observed from the northeast and southwest
solar limbs early in the UT day and a slow northwest CME was
observed from 13/0724UT. These CME events are considered to be
far side activity. No CME was associated with the small filament
eruption. S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on
UT day 13-Jun. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected
over 14-16 Jun. The solar wind environment on UT day 13-Jun was
moderately elevated, possibly due to coronal hole effects and
weak transient CME influences. The solar wind speed ranged from
445 to 390 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 16 nT and the north-south IMF component range was
+8 to -13 nT. Bz was oriented southward for most of the UT day,
with most of the IMF total field magnitude in the southward Bz
component. A coronal hole wind stream may connect with Earth
either late 14-Jun or early 15-Jun. A recurrent pattern of sustained
southward IMF conditions, which precedes an increase in the solar
wind speed is apparent for the last two solar rotations and is
recurring faster than the average solar rotation speed of 27
days. If this recurring southward interplanetary magnetic pattern
continues to persist, it implies the next interval of sustained
southward IMF conditions may be experienced during 07-08 Jul.
The preceding southward orientated IMF structure appears to be
persisting despite some changes in area/shape of the following
coronal hole. The ACE EPAM low energy ion flux showed a minor
enhancement on 13-Jun possibly suggesting a very weak and slow
CME grazing transient as an additional factor, however the peak
ion enhancement remained below the lowest CME precursor flux
threshold.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 13 Jun : A K
Australian Region 22 43344344
Cocos Island 15 43333233
Darwin 22 43344344
Townsville 21 43344343
Learmonth 26 53345334
Alice Springs 23 53334344
Gingin 26 53344444
Canberra 22 43344344
Kennaook Cape Grim 37 54455454
Hobart 34 44455454
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Jun :
Macquarie Island 75 55586653
Casey 15 43333233
Mawson 65 76532367
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 7 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 38
Planetary 64
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 33
Planetary 0 5444 4355
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jun 30 Initially G1-G2, then declining to G0-G1
15 Jun 18 G0-G1
16 Jun 14 G0, chance G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 46 was issued on 13 June and
is current for 13-14 Jun. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 13-Jun, with isolated G1 periods
at some sites. G0-G4 geomagnetic conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region. G2 planetary geomagnetic conditions were
observed on 13-Jun. The geomagnetic disturbance is associated
with the continuation of sustained southward orientation of the
solar wind interplanetary magnetic field parameter Bz. Geomagnetic
conditions are expected to slowly decline on 14-Jun from G2 to
G1, with G1 periods likely to continue over 15-Jun due to a coronal
hole wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jun Normal Poor-fair Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jun Normal Poor-fair Poor
15 Jun Normal Fair Poor-fair
16 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication on UT day 13-Jun were poor for
middle to high latitudes in association with ongoing geomagnetic
activity. HF conditions at middle to high latitudes are expected
to remain poor to fair for 14-Jun , with a slowly improving trend.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jun 104
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 70% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed 25% during the local day.
Depressed by 30% all day at Hobart.
Generally near predicted values during the local night.
Depressed 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 45% over the UT day.
Strong spread F and sporadic E.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 94
Jun 109
Jul 107
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jun 85 Depressed 15 to 30% southern Aus./15% enhanced
northern Aus.
15 Jun 95 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
16 Jun 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 63 was issued on 13
June and is current for 14 Jun only. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 13-Jun were generally
25% depressed in the southern Australian region, with Hobart
MUFs depressed by up to 30% throughout the day. Southern Australian
region MUFs are currently 15-30% depressed after local dawn this
morning. Strong spread F was observed at Hobart during local
night hours. Northern Australian MUFs remained mostly near predicted
monthly vales. Antarctic conditions were poor. Strong equatorial
spread F was observed at Niue during local night hours with an
associated strong enhancement in local night MUFs. Ionospheric
scintillation was observed 13/0832-1405UT at Niue. For 14-Jun
MUFs are expected to be depressed 15-30% for the southern Australian
region and near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced for
the northern Australian region. Isolated brief minor fadeouts
are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jun
Speed: 440 km/sec Density: 10.6 p/cc Temp: 45400 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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