[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 12 June 25 issued 2330 UT on 12 Jun 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Jun 13 09:30:54 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 JUNE 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 13 JUNE - 15 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jun: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jun: 142/96
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Jun 14 Jun 15 Jun
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 135/89
COMMENT: On UT day 12-Jun solar activity was R0, with no noteworthy
solar flares. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions
on the solar disk. The main spots of AR4105 (S16W42, beta-gamma)
have grown closer together, but the region remains mostly quiet.
AR4110 (S05W30, beta), AR4112 (S08E06, beta) and AR4114 (N18E49,
beta) have all shown minor spot development. All other regions
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be
R0-R1 over 13-15 Jun.
Filament movement can be seen early in the UT day 12-Jun in the solar
northeastern quadrant, and an associated CME is visible shortly after,
although it may overlap with a previous CME from the northeastern quadrant.
This filament appears to stretch over to the farside, likely where the source
of the CME is. Therefore, this event is not expected to be Earth-directed,
although due to coronagraph imagery unavailability there is uncertainty
in this conclusion. Several other CMEs were observed on UT day
12-Jun but none were considered geoeffective.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 12-Jun.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 13-15 Jun.
The solar wind environment on UT day 12-Jun was mildly disturbed, possibly due
to ongoing coronal hole effects or weak transient CME influences.
The solar wind speed ranged from 493 to 382 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 16 nT and the north-south
IMF component range was +8 to -13 nT. Bz was oriented southward
for a prolonged period for several periods of the day. The solar
wind environment is expected to remain mildly disturbed but
on a declining trend on 13-Jun. A coronal hole may connect with
Earth either late 14-Jun or early 15-Jun, possibly associated
with a co-rotating interaction region to further disturb the
solar wind.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jun: G1
Estimated Indices 12 Jun : A K
Australian Region 20 23354243
Cocos Island 9 23232132
Darwin 20 23344344
Townsville 17 23344243
Learmonth 23 33355243
Alice Springs 21 23354244
Gingin 23 33345344
Canberra 19 22354243
Kennaook Cape Grim 30 32465344
Hobart 29 33464344
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Jun :
Macquarie Island 45 34576343
Casey 14 33233143
Mawson 55 66653356
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Hobart 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 24
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 18 3322 2445
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Jun 8 G0, chance G1-G2
14 Jun 14 G0-G1
15 Jun 18 G0-G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 43 was issued on 11 June and
is current for 13-15 Jun. G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 12-Jun. G0-G3 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. The cause of
the geomagnetic disturbance was the onset of a coronal hole,
and possibly a weak transient CME influence, along with several
periods of southward solar wind parameter Bz. Conditions are
expected to be similar, with a chance of G2, on 13 Jun, then
further periods of G1 are possible on either late 14-Jun or else
15-Jun due to connection to a new coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
14 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
15 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: HF radio communication on UT day 12-Jun was normal to
mildly degraded. Strongest degradations appeared to be in the
northern hemisphere high latitudes. HF radio propagation conditions
are expected to be normal to degraded over 13-15 Jun, with the
strongest degradations likely by the end of the period due to
coronal hole activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Jun 108
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 94
Jun 109
Jul 107
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Jun 90 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
14 Jun 90 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
15 Jun 80 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 12-Jun were near predicted values to 15% depressed.
Most sites in the Australian region were degraded during local
midnight to dawn hours. Spread-F was observed in Hobart and Brisbane;
sporadic-E was observed in Darwin and Canberra. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted values to 15% depressed over 13-14 Jun,
then further depressions are likely as Earth is expected to connect
to a coronal hole by this time.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jun
Speed: 443 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 95900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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