[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 11 June 25 issued 2330 UT on 11 Jun 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Jun 12 09:30:54 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 JUNE 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 12 JUNE - 14 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jun: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jun: 141/95
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Jun 13 Jun 14 Jun
Activity R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 11-Jun was R0, with no solar
flares. There are currently six numbered sunspot regions on the
solar disk. AR4105 (S15W26, beta-gamma) has shown dramatic growth
over the past day, but has remained quiet so far. AR4110 (N05W11,
beta) has shown some slight growth, and all other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to
be R0-R1 over 12-14 Jun, with a chance for R2 events from AR4105.
No Earth-directed CMEs were observed on UT day 11-Jun. A small
filament erupted from 1739 UT from near AR4105. Further imagery
is required to determine if there is an Earth-directed CME associated
with it.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on
UT day 11-Jun. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected
over 12-14 Jun.
The solar wind environment on UT day 11-Jun was
mildly disturbed, possibly due to a connection with a small
coronal hole or co-rotating interaction region. The solar wind
speed ranged from 419 to 473 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 11 nT and the north-south IMF component
range was +7 to -10 nT with a period of sustained southward Bz
at the end of the day. The solar wind environment is expected
to remain mildly enhanced on 12-Jun, before declining to background
levels over 13-14. Another coronal hole may connect at the end
of the period, however, causing an increase to the solar wind
speed.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 11 Jun : A K
Australian Region 9 22101343
Cocos Island 7 22111332
Darwin 8 22111333
Townsville 10 22211343
Learmonth 12 22211443
Alice Springs 9 22101343
Gingin 13 22102444
Canberra 10 22102343
Kennaook Cape Grim 11 22102443
Hobart 11 22102443
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Jun :
Macquarie Island 16 22023551
Casey 13 33221433
Mawson 43 54422736
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 3 (Quiet)
Hobart 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 3222 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Jun 14 G0, slight chance G1
13 Jun 8 G0
14 Jun 14 G0, chance G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 43 was issued on 11 June and
is current for 13-15 Jun. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 11-Jun. G0-G3 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are generally expected over 12-14 Jun, with a slight
chance for G1 early on 12-Jun due to residual coronal hole effects.
Connection to another coronal hole may happen on late 14-Jun
that may cause periods of G1.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jun Fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
13 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were normal to fair,
with degraded conditions being prominent in the northern hemisphere
high latitudes. HF radio propagation conditions may continue
to be mildly degraded on 12-Jun but generally improving on 13-Jun.
Some degradations may set in late on 14-Jun due to coronal activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Jun 84
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 94
Jun 109
Jul 107
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Jun 90 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
13 Jun 90 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
14 Jun 105 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 61 was issued on 10
June and is current for 10-12 Jun. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region were near predicted values to
35% depressed. Spread-F and sporadic-E were prominent during
local night and dawn hours. Conditions in Hobart, Brisbane and
Norfolk Island were poor. MUFs are expected to continue to be
depressed by 10-20% over 12-13 Jun before improving. Spread-F
is possible during local night hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jun
Speed: 436 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 68400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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