[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 10 June 25 issued 2330 UT on 10 Jun 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Jun 11 09:30:53 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 JUNE 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 11 JUNE - 13 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jun: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jun: 129/82
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Jun
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 10-Jun was at the R0 level.
Solar region AR4107 (S19W38, beta-gamma) produced several C class flares,
the largest a C5.5 at 10/1052UT. This small to medium sized region
has shown rapid growth in the past 24 hours. Medium sized solar
region AR4105 (S15W16, beta) which was in slow decay over 07-08
Jun, has shown intermediate spot redevelopment over the last
two days. Small regions AR4110 (N05E02, beta) and AR4112 (S09E39,
beta) have shown slight growth. A very small new region has rotated
onto the disk over the northeast solar limb just to the east
of stable region AR4111 (N14E51, beta). There has been some plasma
spray activity on the northeast limb at solar latitude N15 during
the interval 10/0000-0800UT, with the rest of the solar disk
remaining relatively quiet. There are currently six numbered
sunspot regions on the solar disk. Other regions are stable or
in decay. Old solar region AR4098 which produced an R3 flare
on its previous transit, though exhibiting some decay as it rotated
off disk, appears to have not returned to the southeast solar
limb at solar latitude S04 on 10-Jun. Solar activity is expected
to be at the R0-R1 level over 11-13 Jun. S0 solar radiation storm
conditions were observed on 10-Jun. S0 solar radiation storm
conditions are expected over 11-13 Jun. No Earth directed CMEs
have been observed. CME activity was observed from behind the
northeast solar limb during the interval 10/0048-0800UT. The
solar wind speed on UT day 10-Jun was mostly steady and moderately
elevated, ranging between 430 to 470 km/s, and is currently near
430 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component range was +4 to
-7 nT. Moderately elevated solar wind conditions are expected
due to high speed wind stream effects from a small equatorial
coronal hole, now in the northwest solar quadrant. A larger coronal
hole is visible in the southeast solar quadrant and is approaching
the solar central meridian.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 10 Jun : A K
Australian Region 5 11211222
Cocos Island 4 21211111
Darwin 5 12211222
Townsville 5 12211222
Learmonth 6 22221222
Alice Springs 4 11211221
Gingin 6 22211222
Canberra 3 11210112
Kennaook Cape Grim 5 11211222
Hobart 5 11211222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Jun :
Macquarie Island 4 21221200
Casey 8 33221222
Mawson 25 53332255
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 5 (Quiet)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 4532 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Jun 14 G0, chance G1
12 Jun 14 G0, chance G1
13 Jun 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 10-Jun. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with a period of G1 conditions
observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are generally expected
over 11-12 Jun, with a chance of G1 conditions on 11-12 Jun due
to anticipated high speed wind stream effects from a small equatorial
coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jun Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jun Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
12 Jun Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
13 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on 10-Jun were fair
to normal, with fair conditions at middle to high latitudes.
HF radio conditions are expected to be fair to normal over 11-13
Jun, with continued mildly degraded conditions at high latitudes.
Isolated minor fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Jun 72
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Frequent sporadic E observed at Mawson and Casey.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 94
Jun 109
Jul 107
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Jun 90 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
12 Jun 90 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
13 Jun 90 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 61 was issued on 10
June and is current for 10-12 Jun. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 10-Jun were near predicted
values to 30% depressed during local night hours. Depressions
of 15% during daylight hours were observed in the southern Australian
region. Spread-F was observed at Darwin, Townsville, Hobart and
Canberra during local night hours. MUFs in the Australian region
over 11-13 Jun are generally expected to be depressed 10-15%
to near predicted monthly values. Mildly degraded HF conditions
are possible during local night hours. Isolated minor fadeouts
are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jun
Speed: 477 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 145000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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