[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 10 June 25 issued 2330 UT on 10 Jun 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Jun 11 09:30:53 AEST 2025


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 JUNE 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 11 JUNE - 13 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jun:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jun: 129/82


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Jun             12 Jun             13 Jun
Activity     R0-R1              R0-R1              R0-R1
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             120/72             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 10-Jun was at the R0 level. 
Solar region AR4107 (S19W38, beta-gamma) produced several C class flares, 
the largest a C5.5 at 10/1052UT. This small to medium sized region 
has shown rapid growth in the past 24 hours. Medium sized solar 
region AR4105 (S15W16, beta) which was in slow decay over 07-08 
Jun, has shown intermediate spot redevelopment over the last 
two days. Small regions AR4110 (N05E02, beta) and AR4112 (S09E39, 
beta) have shown slight growth. A very small new region has rotated 
onto the disk over the northeast solar limb just to the east 
of stable region AR4111 (N14E51, beta). There has been some plasma 
spray activity on the northeast limb at solar latitude N15 during 
the interval 10/0000-0800UT, with the rest of the solar disk 
remaining relatively quiet. There are currently six numbered 
sunspot regions on the solar disk. Other regions are stable or 
in decay. Old solar region AR4098 which produced an R3 flare 
on its previous transit, though exhibiting some decay as it rotated 
off disk, appears to have not returned to the southeast solar 
limb at solar latitude S04 on 10-Jun. Solar activity is expected 
to be at the R0-R1 level over 11-13 Jun. S0 solar radiation storm 
conditions were observed on 10-Jun. S0 solar radiation storm 
conditions are expected over 11-13 Jun. No Earth directed CMEs 
have been observed. CME activity was observed from behind the 
northeast solar limb during the interval 10/0048-0800UT. The 
solar wind speed on UT day 10-Jun was mostly steady and moderately 
elevated, ranging between 430 to 470 km/s, and is currently near 
430 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, 
Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component range was +4 to 
-7 nT. Moderately elevated solar wind conditions are expected 
due to high speed wind stream effects from a small equatorial 
coronal hole, now in the northwest solar quadrant. A larger coronal 
hole is visible in the southeast solar quadrant and is approaching 
the solar central meridian.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jun: G0

Estimated Indices 10 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   11211222
      Cocos Island         4   21211111
      Darwin               5   12211222
      Townsville           5   12211222
      Learmonth            6   22221222
      Alice Springs        4   11211221
      Gingin               6   22211222
      Canberra             3   11210112
      Kennaook Cape Grim   5   11211222
      Hobart               5   11211222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     4   21221200
      Casey                8   33221222
      Mawson              25   53332255

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               5   (Quiet)
      Canberra            14   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              0   4532 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Jun    14    G0, chance G1
12 Jun    14    G0, chance G1
13 Jun    10    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 10-Jun. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were 
observed in the Antarctic region, with a period of G1 conditions 
observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are generally expected 
over 11-12 Jun, with a chance of G1 conditions on 11-12 Jun due 
to anticipated high speed wind stream effects from a small equatorial 
coronal hole.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jun      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jun      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal
12 Jun      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal
13 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on 10-Jun were fair 
to normal, with fair conditions at middle to high latitudes. 
HF radio conditions are expected to be fair to normal over 11-13 
Jun, with continued mildly degraded conditions at high latitudes. 
Isolated minor fadeouts are possible.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Jun    72

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
      Frequent sporadic E observed at Mawson and Casey.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      94
Jun      109
Jul      107

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Jun    90    Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
12 Jun    90    Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
13 Jun    90    Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 61 was issued on 10 
June and is current for 10-12 Jun. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 10-Jun were near predicted 
values to 30% depressed during local night hours. Depressions 
of 15% during daylight hours were observed in the southern Australian 
region. Spread-F was observed at Darwin, Townsville, Hobart and 
Canberra during local night hours. MUFs in the Australian region 
over 11-13 Jun are generally expected to be depressed 10-15% 
to near predicted monthly values. Mildly degraded HF conditions 
are possible during local night hours. Isolated minor fadeouts 
are possible.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jun
Speed: 477 km/sec  Density:    5.2 p/cc  Temp:   145000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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