[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 04 June 25 issued 2330 UT on 04 Jun 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Jun 5 09:30:52 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JUNE 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 05 JUNE - 07 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jun: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jun: 134/88
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jun 06 Jun 07 Jun
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 130/84 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 04-Jun was at the R0 level.
There are currently five numbered sunspot regions visible on
the solar disk. AR4100 (N07W55, gamma) and AR4105 (S15E64, beta-gamma-delta)
are the largest and most magnetically complex sunspot regions
on the disk and showed development over the UT day. Newly numbered
region AR4106 (N12E13, beta) showed significant spot development
over the day but remains magnetically simple. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at R1-R2 levels over 05-07 Jun. No Earth-directed CMEs
have been observed. A filament eruption is visible in SDO, GOES
SUVI and H-Alpha imagery from 04/1008UT at around N20E40. No
CME associated with this event is visible in available coronagraph
imagery. The solar wind speed on UT day 04-Jun increased, ranging
from 490 to 835 km/s and is currently near 750 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 15
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was -11 to +10
nT. The solar wind is expected to remain elevated over 05-Jun.
A coronal hole in the southern hemisphere is approaching a geoeffective
position which may further enhance solar wind speeds over 06-07
Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 04 Jun : A K
Australian Region 15 13334432
Cocos Island 12 12234421
Darwin 16 23334432
Townsville 15 13334432
Learmonth 19 13345432
Alice Springs 15 13334432
Gingin 18 12345432
Canberra 16 03234531
Kennaook Cape Grim 19 13344532
Hobart 20 02345532
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jun :
Macquarie Island 38 13366642
Casey 22 23334632
Mawson 56 15745646
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jun :
Darwin 18 (Quiet)
Townsville 19 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 14 (Quiet)
Gingin 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 65 (Active)
Hobart 119 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 27
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 58
Planetary 0 6765 6532
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jun 18 G0, chance of G1
06 Jun 18 G0, chance of G1
07 Jun 8 G0
COMMENT: Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the
Australian region on UT day 04-Jun, with periods of G1 observed
at Learmonth, Gingin, Canberra, Kennaook Cape Grim and Hobart.
G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Antarctic region.
G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed at the planetary level.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 05-07 Jun, with a
chance of G1 on 05-06 Jun due to ongoing coronal hole high speed
wind stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jun Fair-poor Fair-poor Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 04-Jun were
mostly pair for the first half of the day. Conditions recovered
towards fair to normal at mid-low latitudes and fair at high
latitudes. Normal to fair HF propagation conditions are expected
over 05-07 Jun. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Jun 57
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 94
Jun 109
Jul 107
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jun 80 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
06 Jun 90 Near predicted monthly values
07 Jun 95 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 57 was issued on 4 June
and is current for 4-5 Jun. ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning
58 was issued on 4 June and is current for 4-6 Jun. Maximum usable
frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 04-Jun
were depressed by 20-35%. Spread F was observed at Hobart, Canberra
and Brisbane during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be
depressed by up to 15% at the start of 05-Jun recovering towards
predicted monthly values over 05-07 Jun. Shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jun
Speed: 584 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 161000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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