[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 05 June 25 issued 2330 UT on 05 Jun 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Jun 6 09:30:49 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 JUNE 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 06 JUNE - 08 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jun: R0
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 04/2328UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jun: 128/81
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Jun 07 Jun 08 Jun
Activity R1, chance of R2 R1, chance of R2 R1, chance of R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 128/81 128/81 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 05-Jun was at the R0 level
with two large C-class flares at 05/1546UT and 05/1714UT. An
M1.1 flare was observed on 04-Jun at 04/2328UT. There are currently
four numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR4100
(N09W66, gamma) is the largest sunspot region and showed spot
decay over the UT day, this region was responsible for the M1.1
flare late on the previous day. AR4105 (S14E48, beta-gamma) showed
spot development and was responsible for the large C-class flares
on 05-Jun. An unnumbered region has emerged at N08E21 with beta
magnetic complexity. All other sunspot regions are either stable
or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at the R1 level,
with a chance of R2 over 06-08 Jun. Solar radiation storm conditions
were at the S0 level on 05-Jun. S0 conditions are expected over
06-08 Jun. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. A northeast
directed CME is visible in SOHO and STEREO-A imagery from 05/0836UT.
There is no clear on disk source for this event. This CME is
not considered geoeffective. The solar wind speed on UT day 05-Jun
decreased, ranging from 510 to 740 km/s and is currently near
530 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was -3 to +3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to continue
to slowly decline over 06-08 Jun. A small coronal hole in the
northern hemisphere is expected to be in a geoeffective position
on 07-Jun, however it is not expected to have a strong impact
on the solar wind environment.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 05 Jun : A K
Australian Region 7 22222222
Cocos Island 6 22222221
Darwin 7 22222222
Townsville 8 32222222
Learmonth 9 23322222
Alice Springs 7 22222222
Gingin 7 23222221
Canberra 7 22222222
Kennaook Cape Grim 8 22232222
Hobart 7 22231212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Jun :
Macquarie Island 7 23132211
Casey 17 23332452
Mawson 29 54544424
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jun :
Darwin 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 6 (Quiet)
Learmonth 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Alice Springs 19 (Quiet)
Gingin 86 (Minor storm)
Canberra 105 (Major storm)
Hobart 181 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 26
Planetary 0 1434 5543
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Jun 14 G0, chance of G1
07 Jun 10 G0
08 Jun 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 05-Jun. Mostly G1 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are
expected over 06-08 Jun, with a chance of G1 on 06-Jun due to
ongoing coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jun Fair-poor Fair-poor Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 05-Jun were
mostly poor to fair. Fair to poor HF propagation conditions are
expected on 06-Jun. Conditions are expected to recover towards
normal over 07-08 Jun. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Jun 62
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 94
Jun 109
Jul 107
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Jun 75 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
07 Jun 85 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
08 Jun 85 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 58 was issued on
4 June and is current for 4-6 Jun. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the southern Australian region on UT day 05-Jun were
depressed by up to 25% throughout the day. MUFs in the northern
Australian region were near predicted monthly values to depressed
by 30% during local night. Spread F was observed at Hobart and
Canberra during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be mostly
depressed by up to 20% on 06-Jun. Conditions are expected to
recover towards monthly predicted values over 07-08 Jun. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jun
Speed: 585 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 233000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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